The Pittsburgh Thunderbirds (2-6), who sit 4 games under .500 control their own destiny for an UFA post-season berth in 2026. How is this possible? Let’s break it down.
How the UFA Playoffs Work
In each of the four UFA Divisions (East, Central, South, West), three teams make the play-offs. The #3 seed travels to face the #2 seed in a Divisional semi-final match-up. The winner of that game earns the right to travel to the #1 seed in a Divisional final.
The winners of each Divisional final game all advanced to Championship Weekend in Madison, Wisconsin where teams are reseeded based on their regular season record.
Central Divisional Standings for the 12-Game Long UFA Season
Pittsburgh plays in the Central Division which consists of the following teams. In first place, you have the undefeated Minnesota Wind Chill, sitting at a perfect 10-0 record. Minnesota has not only clinched a play-off spot, but they have also clinched the #1 overall seed in the Central Division. The current #2 seed, the Madison Radicals, are currently 5-4. The current #3 seed the Indianapolis AlleyCats, have a 4-5 record. The aforementioned 2-6 Pittsburgh squad brings up the #4 slot. And the Chicago Union currently hold the bottom #5 seed sitting at 1-8. At best, Chicago can improve to 4-8, and because they don’t own any tie-breakers, even if Indianapolis loses it’s remaining games, Chicago would be eliminated due to tie-breaker.
That leaves three teams remaining for two slots; Madison, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh.
Game Schedules Remaining
Madison: PIT/CHI/MIN
Indy: PIT/PIT/TOR
Pittsburgh: MAD/IND/IND/CHI
This sets-up nearly 128 scenarios that play out, which you can take a deep dive into with this matrix spreadsheet.
What does a fan of Pittsburgh need to take away from a massive matrix like this? Go 4-0, and every scenario that plays out shows Pittsburgh will be in the play-offs.
This result is due to the fact that Pittsburgh’s schedule was so front-loaded with out of divisional opponents (Montreal, Philadelphia, New York, Toronto, Carolina), and now face Indianapolis for the first time this season twice in a row.
The “depends” section comes down to tiebreaker scenarios. Pittsburgh lost to Madison earlier in the year at F.N.B. Stadium in Pittsburgh by 4 goals. Therefore, if Pittsburgh can manage to not only win vs Madison on Friday, July 10th at Breese Stevens (something they have never done before by the way), but win by 5 goals or more, any scenario in which the matrix shows Madison and Pittsburgh tied, the nod would go to Pittsburgh. This would open up a few extra playoff spots for Pittsburgh.
All-in, out of the 128 different outcomes, Pittsburgh has 27 ways to accomplish their goals. The most important outcome of all though is the fact that Pittsburgh controls their own destiny and do not currently need any help from other teams to accomplish this.
We will know more tomorrow when Pittsburgh takes on Madison and Indianapolis for a double-header road trip. Both games can be seen on WatchUFA.tv
