By: Andrew Gardner
The AUDL Central Divisional standings are chaotic. With more than 75% of the schedule played for the remaining teams in contention, the Indianapolis AlleyCats (7-2), Minnesota Wind Chill (6-2), Chicago Union (5-3), and Pittsburgh Thunderbirds (4-4) are all vying for 3 spots.
No team has clinched as of July 5th. Even the 1st place AlleyCats could miss the post-season altogether as a result of the eccentric schedule. Pittsburgh won’t play the AlleyCats until their final two games, facing them in Weeks 12 and 13 (out of 13 weeks) – which means an Indy loss to Minnesota on July 9th, and two Indy losses to Pittsburgh would put them at 7-4, potentially forcing them out of post-season play.
This article will examine the path the Thunderbirds need to take in order to make the post-season. The good news is that the Thunderbirds control their own destiny. In other words, they don’t need to rely on another team to win or lose on their behalf. It’s win and in.
The Central playoffs work as follows: The Top 3 Seeds make the playoffs. The 3 seed would travel to the 2 seed for Divisional Semi-Finals. The winner would travel to the 1 seed for the Divisional Finals. The winner of that game would go onto Minneapolis for Championship Weekend, which is the Divisional Winners of the East, Central, South, and West.
Pittsburgh’s Remaining Games
7/7 – 7:00 EST vs Chicago
7/8 – 7:30 EST @ Chicago
7/15 – 7:00 EST @ Indy
7/22 – 6:00 EST vs Indy
We can break-down likely post-season scenarios into two chunks. Firstly, what happens on Week 11 (July 7th – 8th), and the secondarily, what would happen vs Indy.
Scenario #1 – Pittsburgh goes 2-0 vs Chicago
Pittsburgh would move to 6-4 and Chicago would drop to 5-5. Pittsburgh would then need to only defeat Indianapolis once out of the remaining two games to guarantee a post-season spot, regardless of what the other teams do.
Scenario #2 – Pittsburgh goes 0-2 vs Chicago
The least desirable option virtually eliminates the Thunderbirds from playoff contention. Chicago would then control their own destiny, and a victory @ Minnesota on 7/15 or vs Madison on 7/21 would punch their ticket to the post-season.
Scenario #3 – Pittsburgh goes 1-1 vs Chicago, but owns the tiebreaker
Winning the tiebreaker would mean that the sum of scores between the two contests Chicago and Pittsburgh play is positive for Pittsburgh. For example, if Pittsburgh wins Game 1 by a score of 22-20, and lose Game 2 by a score of 22-21, they would finish with a +1 and hold the tie-breaker.
Therefore, if this scenario occurs, Pittsburgh would need to match Chicago’s win total in the final two games to ensure a play-off game. If Chicago goes 2-0 (@ Minnesota and vs Madison), Pittsburgh would also have to go 2-0 (@ Indy and vs Indy).
The mind-set for Pittsburgh if this scenario occurs – win both games vs Indy and you’re guaranteed in. Anything less, and the Thunderbirds would need reliance from Chicago to lose some games. Even if the Thunderbirds go 0-2 vs Indy in the final weeks, they could still make the post-season.
Scenario #4 – Pittsburgh goes 1-1 vs Chicago, but loses the tiebreaker
See above, but reverse the scenario. The Thunderbirds would no longer control their own destiny, but they aren’t eliminated. Two losses to Indy would eliminate the Thunderbirds from contention.
Scenario #5 – Pittsburgh goes 1-1 vs Chicago, but the tiebreaker is tied
In this scenario, the League would intervene as it goes to ‘Adjusted Division Point Differential’.
Adjusted Division Point Differential is averaging the differential against each Division Opponent in all games played, giving equal weight to each matchup, and then adding that up for an Adjusted Division Point Differential. This helps resolve the imbalance of cross division games and 3 games against a weaker foe for one team but not the other.
Example:
Pittsburgh vs. Detroit 29-13
Pittsburgh vs. Detroit 28-18
Pittsburgh vs. Detroit 25-15
Pittsburgh Adjusted Point Differential: +12 (36 divided by 3)
Chicago vs. Detroit 25-20
Chicago vs. Detroit 18-12
Chicago Adjusted Point Differential: +5.5 (11 divided by 2)
The league would complete this process for all division matchups/opponents, and then add up the differential calculated from each match-up to determine the "adjust division point differential" to determine the seeding.
The conclusion from the scenarios is that these games for the Thunderbirds against Chicago are paramount for a post-season run. It all starts at 7 PM on July 7th, Friday night at Highmark Stadium vs the Chicago Union.
