PHOTO BY MATTHEW PAWLOWSKI
BY SHAGGY SHRAGIS
After a late season bye week, the Philadelphia Phoenix will need to hit the ground running as week 12 brings the biggest challenge the young Hotbirds have faced all season — a back to back against Boston and New York. Friday July 11 Philly will face off against the Boston Glory, then Sunday the Phoenix travel to Mt. Vernon to do battle with the New York Empire. Philadelphia can guarantee a playoff appearance with two wins, or by defeating the Empire by two points. Lose both, and Philly could find itself outside of the playoffs for the third straight season.
While several teams have beaten the Philadelphia Phoenix over the last few seasons, none have done so more convincingly than the Boston Glory. Philly has been outscored by 38 across five and a half games, going back to May 13, 2023 when halfway through the second quarter between Boston and Philly, and the Phoenix were up 10-3 with just under 30 minutes left to play. Since Boston entered the league in 2021, no other team in the Association has this dominant scoring differential against the Phoenix.
Other years, Boston was a good team, scrapping for their chance at the playoffs just like Philadelphia. This season however, the Glory are 8-1, and sit just one Thomas Edmonds buzzer beater away from a perfect undefeated record. In some ways, that loss helps Philadelphia. If the Phoenix can win this game by 10 or more, they still have a chance to take the number one overall seed heading into the playoffs, which would give them a bye and a home playoff game for the first time in Phoenix franchise history. On the other hand Boston still needs a win to lock the one seed up for themselves, still giving them something to play for heading into the weekend. Moreover, Boston is playing Philly on the first part of a double header themselves, as they will travel to play DC on Saturday. If I were the Glory, and I had a choice between locking up the one seed by beating Philly or putting my eggs in DC’s basket, I would sell out to defeat the Philadelphia Phoenix.
The Glory have been the best squad in the Eastern Division this season, but unlike years past — when the best Eastern Division champion looked the favorite to win the championship — Boston’s numbers paint the picture of a good team, but not a juggernaut. Part of that could have to do with the strength of the opponents, with teams ahead of them like Chicago or Minnesota, having the benefit of playing much worse competition. However, it does meet the eye test. Boston has not looked like a crisp championship contender, largely due to their possession limiting style of play. Boston slows down the game through a combination of high pass counts, ranking fourth in the league in completions per game and generally long possessions, the Glory have the lowest combined point total of team scores and opposing scores of any team in the league.
This possession-limiting style of play puts a premium on being able to convert, and Boston has thrived all season on being able to mount up tiny advantages. The biggest shift from seasons past has not been their offense, despite the additions of Calvin Stoughton and Tobe Decraene, but rather their defenses' ability to convert breaks even through tiny opportunities. Boston has converted over half of all break opportunities into scores, an efficiency that has only increased since Jeff Babbitt switched from offense to defense. Tannor Johnson-Go being fully bought in has been the catalyst, but Ethan Fortin’s and Albert Yuan’s additions to the team have helped push Boston’s defense from average to elite.
Fortunately for Philadelphia, this may be the first time all season that the Phoenix offense is at full strength. Scott Heyman has had a week off to heal, hopefully revitalizing the early season MVP candidate. Adam Grossberg, Sam Grossberg and Brandon Pastor have all returned from their Team USA responsibilities, and while A. Grossberg will likely continue to play defense, S. Grossberg and Pastor will help stabilize an offense that looked shaky at times against Montreal. Greg Martin — who returned from injury in week 10 — should also be healthy once again, giving the Phoenix offense their first opportunity at a full complement of players. It will be interesting to see where Casey Thornton, Michael Maroon, Calvin Trisolini, Nate Long and Colin White slot in. Those players have all had consistent runs on the offense to fill recent absences.
While winning the Boston game would be a huge accomplishment for Philly, the more important game is Sunday afternoon at the New York Empire. Philadelphia can guarantee a playoff spot if they beat New York by two, regardless of the results from any other games. The Empire have played Philadelphia twice this year, once in preseason and for their first official season matchup on May 23. While both were close games, New York emerged victorious each time. The Empire also went into those matchups missing key players — notably Jack Williams, Ben Jagt, John Randolph and Calvin Brown in the preseason, and Oliver Fay in the regular season — and yet were still able to get two big victories. New York is also coming off its biggest win, not counting the game against Las Vegas, of the season after beating Toronto 23-19 on June 20.
On the flip side, the Empire have not played a UFA game in 23 days come Sunday’s battle. The extra day in between back-to-backs for the Hotbirds could work in their favor, as they will be fully tuned up for the match, but without the month off that New York has undergone. There is plenty of championship pedigree with the Empire, but the extra layer of rust might give Philadelphia the edge.
One of the key components to watch for in both games will be the Phoenix’s success guarding hucks. The Glory and the Empire are both around league average in the deep game, as are the Phoenix. Furthermore, Philly has turned their deep defense around in recent weeks, after being torched from deep to start the season they now have the fifth best huck defense in the league holding opponents to just 57% on deep throws. Orion Cable, the only player on Boston’s offense to play all nine games, leads the team with 11 huck completions, and has a huck rate of 14%, meaning one out of every seven throws from Cable is a huck. The Empire, in the regular season game against Philadelphia, had their best deep performance of the season, completing nine of 10 deep throws for a 90% completion rate. The Phoenix will need to key in on Orion Cable as both a receiver and a thrower against Boston, then double down on holding New York to a less efficient game if they want to come out with two wins.
Both games are important for playoff positioning, but the game against the Empire is doubly so, as a victory against New York alone could guarantee a playoff berth, while beating Boston would still require a win against either New York or DC. Furthermore, Philly needs to beat Boston by 10 to stay in the hunt for the number one overall seed. If the Boston game gets out of hand, we could see the Phoenix move to conserve their legs, and shift all their chips into the “Beat New York” basket. Either way, expect high flying Hotbird Summer action all weekend! Get your tickets to the action as the Phoenix take on Boston at Neumann University this Friday July 11 at 7 p.m. at phoneixulti.com and tune into watchufa.tv to watch the Hotbirds live in New York on Sunday July 13 at 1 p.m.
