August 6, 2026
By Ryan Baker
For the four Divisional Championships taking place this weekend, two games seem more lopsided than the others. However, in every game, no matter the circumstances, there is a favorite and an underdog. The visiting teams of Carolina, New York, Indianapolis, and Salt Lake are the underdogs this weekend, so we will take a look at a couple of things each of those teams can do to pull off the upset and punch their ticket to Championship Weekend.
South Division | Carolina Flyers (11-2) at Austin Sol (11-1)
How Carolina completes the upset: Keep Austin below a 70 percent hold rate and stay under 12 turnovers.
Considering Carolina just beat Austin Sol in the final eight seconds of their only game in 2026 on July 10, it’s tough to say which team is the underdog. Still, due to earlier losses to Atlanta and DC, the Flyers are the visitors this weekend. They are riding a six-game win streak and have the return of Allan Laviolette. Laviolette, along with Grayson Sanner, Zeke Thoreson, Tobias Brooks, Jacob Fairfax, Dylan Hawkins, and Jacob Louie, form one of the most balanced offenses in the league. Those seven have combined for just a few turnovers in their last two games. We’ve seen this team play near-perfect, going back to the start of their season when they had just six turnovers in their opening game. In their two losses this season, they had 16 and 17 turnovers. In their close win against Austin and their playoff rout, they had 11. If they can keep turnovers at 11 or less, their chances of winning improve.
Even with that firepower, they ended the regular season with the highest break percentage, which will need to shine more than ever this weekend. Austin’s offense is one of the flashiest in the league, but they do make mistakes. Their hold rate is just below 70 percent on the season, and that’s the exact number Carolina will want to keep them under. The Sol have surpassed that mark seven times this season, but only twice against teams other than Houston and Las Vegas. Every game they were below 70 percent ended in a loss or a one- or two-point win. If Carolina can force the Sol’s hold rate into the 60s and maintain possession, they will likely pull out a close victory.
East Division | New York Empire (11-2) at Boston Glory (11-1)
How New York completes the upset: Shut down the MVP Tobe Decraene and force mistakes
The New York Empire’s offense is the best in the league, proven by their record-breaking O-line conversion rate (67.94%) and hold percentage (79.27%). These are the second-best numbers the UFA has recorded, only behind their 2022 offense. Boston has given them the most trouble this season, which is why those numbers aren’t all-time best. Their two worst percentages came in both Boston games, dropping as low as a 53 percent hold rate and 42 percent O-line conversion rate in the loss. If they can shake off some of the Boston voodoo and maintain their season averages, Boston will be fighting uphill most of the game.
Combine that with not letting Tobe Decraene go every other point, and New York likely represents the East at Championship Weekend. Looking back at the Glory’s two toughest games—their loss against New York and narrow win against Minnesota—it’s less about Decraene himself and more about Thomas Edmonds and Ryan Dinger feeding him the disc in the middle of the field. That was common against Minnesota, where Decraene torched the Wind Chill defense for nine assists. When Decraene gets the disc in spots he likes, he can throw it through tight windows across the entire end zone. If New York can force Decraene away from the disc and prevent him from dribbling it up the field, they have a better chance of reducing his impact.
Central Division | Indianapolis AlleyCats (7-6) at Minnesota Wind Chill (11-1)
How Indy completes the upset: Stop Minnesota’s hot start and play with confidence.
Outside of Minnesota’s games against Oakland and Boston, they have only lost their lead once, and it was for less than a minute. Once the Wind Chill get a two- or three-point lead, it’s hard to come back. They have been losing for just 10.9 percent of the season (63 minutes out of 576). They keep games close and usually keep opponents out of striking distance. Indianapolis will need to focus on the first six minutes to avoid self-inflicted wounds that Minnesota capitalizes on. This season, the AlleyCats have committed more turnovers in the first twelve minutes than any other quarter, so minimizing those is crucial.
Preventing those self-inflicted wounds aligns with the AlleyCats playing with confidence and swagger. As Head Coach Nathan Bussberg said after their playoff win in Madison, “It's going in there with an unfathomable sense of confidence. We're going to live or die by the things that we can do well.” The AlleyCats excel at shooting the disc. They have made a name for themselves through Jake Felton’s and Elliot Hawkins’ deep looks. The duo can throw the disc at any angle for nearly any length of the field and fit it between the eyes of their receiver. That doesn’t mean they should take shots all day, but they and the rest of the team can’t second-guess those opportunities when they come.
West Division | Salt Lake Shred (6-7) at Oakland Spiders (11-1)
How Salt Lake completes the upset: Take advantage of Oakland’s mistakes and use their experience to their advantage.
It seems obvious that the underdog needs to take advantage of the one seed’s mistakes. However, this is critical here, considering how good Oakland’s offense is at regaining the disc after turnovers. While the Spiders’ offense isn’t number one in any category, they are a close second in many. This Oakland squad started the season with five straight wins by 10 or more points, had two games with a 100 percent hold rate, and three more above 80 percent. In those five games, the offense got the disc back 28 times. The Shred posted three of their worst D-line conversion rates in all three losses to Oakland this season: 2/6 in the blowout, 3/10 in the three-point loss, and 6/16 in the one-point loss. These are three of their four worst single-game percentages in 2026.
The Spiders have cooled off in the second half of the season from their record-breaking start, and that’s where Salt Lake could take advantage. With some key players out for Oakland, the Shred’s experience could play a major role. Last year in the Divisional Championship between these two, the Shred pulled it deep, locked up in the end zone, and were the better team when it mattered most. Of all playoff teams, the Spiders have the least playoff experience, with 56 total games on their roster. The Shred have 106 total playoff games, a significant difference between players familiar with that pressure and those who aren’t. There’s a good chance we could see a similar outcome to last season this weekend.
