July 19, 2024
By Sam Weiger
DC Breeze at New York Empire | Game of the Week
Saturday, July 20 - 6:00 PM/ET - Watch link
Sure, playoff seeding is at stake, but the game's true value lies in determining if the Empire are in a class by themselves in the UFA.
A short time ago, the Empire were positioned as one of several championship contenders. But the narrative is changing, and they now look capable of another straightforward march to the title.
In recent weeks, the Empire have made a mockery of Salt Lake and Minnesota, two teams expected to be in the championship hunt. A routine win against DC would feel like a death sentence for the rest of the UFA.
Can DC compete with this dominant New York team? The Shred and Wind Chill combined for 47 turnovers, inflating New York's performance, so it's difficult to assess the Empire’s true strength. One thing's for sure: DC doesn’t usually shoot themselves in the foot against New York.
Since New York's rise to power in 2019, the Breeze have never exceeded 17 turns in their 12 meetings. This is largely due to DC's risk-averse style of play, and we’ll be watching closely to see how they move the disc on Saturday. A completion-heavy approach could be their path to success.
Interestingly, the Breeze have suffered only one defeat in the last three years when reaching 300 completions. When they’re accumulating a high number of completions, it often means that they’re relying on a strategy of short passes, frequent resets, and a deliberate pace.
Controlling the clock and capitalizing on long points could force the Empire to generate defensive stops, a glaring vulnerability for them this season.
They rank fourth-lowest in the league with an average of 8.27 blocks per game, and they had only six blocks against DC in Week 7.
Luckily, the red-hot Empire offense has the potential to save the day. This late-season surge is fueled by heightened performances from Elliott and Oliver Chartock, who we’ll be watching closely on Saturday. With the playoffs looming, we’ll also be watching to see if the O-line can sustain its fluid attack against a stingy Breeze defense (16.36 goals allowed per game).
DC's end-of-quarter dominance was a key factor in their last win over New York. Thomas Edmonds, Elliott Bonnet, Cole Jurek, and Tyler Monroe have been specialists in these situations all season, so keep an eye on them late in each quarter.
The Breeze haven’t won a road game against the Empire in over seven years (8-0), but this will be their first time meeting at Trinity Health Stadium in Hartford, Connecticut. New York laid waste to the Shred in their last game at Trinity Health Stadium.
One Big Number:
20 - The Empire achieved a goal differential of +20 in their last two games against Salt Lake and Minnesota.
12.45 - The Breeze are averaging just 12.45 turns per game this season, the second-fewest in the league.
Carolina Flyers at Atlanta Hustle
Saturday, July 20 - 7:30 PM/ET - Watch link
Soon after the New York/DC opening pull, another bitter rivalry will be renewed.
Winner takes the South, loser settles for second.
The top seed gets a first-round bye and hosts the championship game. We’ve seen home dominance from these two teams this season - both are undefeated at home and won every game in comfortable fashion - so home-field advantage could be a game-changer.
But last year’s season finale between these two teams was anything but comfortable for the home team. Atlanta did manage to give their home crowd a victory, but it was a neck-and-neck battle that required overtime.
The biggest storyline going into this year's finale is roster strength.
Atlanta's roster could be riddled with absences for this game, with Justin Burnett, Lukas McClamrock, Matt Smith, and Trip Crowley currently inactive. Last week's nail-biter against the Legion, played without Burnett, McClamrock, and Smith, offers a sobering preview.
The Hustle's defensive core would be severely weakened by the loss of Burnett and McClamrock, making them vulnerable to their high-scoring opponent. If Carolina's offense is humming on Saturday, some Atlanta O-liners might need to step up and deliver Herculean performances, especially given the possible absence of Smith and Crowley.
Watch out for Austin Taylor, who has a history of playing big against Carolina. He’s averaged seven total scores per game in his last two against the Flyers, and he turned heads in last year’s season finale, finishing with eight assists and 616 throwing yards.
The Flyers might not need a monster individual effort, as they’re nearly back to full health, resembling the squad that crushed the Hustle twice early on. Interestingly, this will be the first time all year that stars Anders Juengst, Sol Yanuck, and Alex Davis will be playing in the same game.
One Big Number:
22 - The Flyers are averaging 22 goals per game, tied for second-most in the UFA.
1.6 - Burnett and McClamrock lead the Hustle in block rate, averaging a combined 1.6 per game.
Seattle Cascades at Salt Lake Shred
Friday, July 19 - 9:00 PM/ET - Watch link
Coming into the 2024 season, very few would have expected this to be a big matchup, but here we are.
Like the South Division, the winner of this game secures the division title and gets a first-round bye in the postseason.
The Cascades' unexpected surge has been one of the biggest surprises in the UFA. This season, they’re expected to finish with as many wins as their last three campaigns combined.
Key offseason additions Lukas Ambrose, Mikey O’Brien, Tommy Li, and Jasper Dean fueled this transformation. Seattle’s stars must deliver for a Friday upset, but they could be shorthanded (Li, Derek Mourad, Gavin Leahy currently inactive) and won’t be very battle-tested going into this game. The Cascades haven’t faced anyone in the top 10 of the UFA Power Rankings yet this year.
For Salt Lake, the biggest challenge could be adapting to Bryce Merrill’s experimental lineups. Since Merrill began tinkering with the lineups, Salt Lake’s turnovers are on the rise. This could be a boon for the Cascades.
Despite the increased turnovers, Chad Yorgason’s emergence on the O-line is a positive development. How Merrill leverages his talent on Friday will be intriguing.
One Big Number:
21 - The Shred are averaging 21 turnovers per game in their last three games.
20.8 - The Cascades are forcing 20.8 turns per game this season (second-most in the UFA).
Indianapolis AlleyCats at Madison Radicals
Friday, July 19 - 8:00 PM/ET - Watch link
Who’s ready for a do-or-die showdown? Win and you're in, lose and you're out.
The Radicals' path back to the playoffs for the first time since 2018 could be paved by minimizing turnovers.
Their Week 9 loss, marked by 24 turnovers against the Wind Chill, prompted coach Tim DeByl to adopt a more conservative passing approach. A focus on reducing turnovers through disciplined play and calculated throws has yielded positive results.
While Madison’s rowdy home crowd is a formidable asset, Indy’s veteran squad has proven resilient at Breese Stevens Field in recent years.
‘Cats veteran Levi Jacobs, fresh off a heroic outing against Pittsburgh, is hoping that Friday won’t be his final UFA game. With retirement looming after this season, expect a passionate performance from the 10-year league stalwart.
One Big Number:
12.33 - Since implementing his new passing strategy, DeByl’s Radicals have reduced their turnover rate from 19.5 per game in their first eight contests to 12.33 over the past three games.
2 - The AlleyCats have won their last two games at Breese Stevens.
