July 19, 2019
By Grant Lindsley
Undefeated – What are the risks and rewards for being the favorite?
Last week, New York Empire became the fourth team in AUDL history to finish with an undefeated record in the regular season.
There are significant benefits to earning the best record in the East division – a bye through the first round of the playoffs and home field advantage in the second. But there are potential costs, too, for players that believe the benefits extend much further.
An undefeated record is an accomplishment, and I’m proud of it for this year’s team, but winning also poses a risk for any team with more games to play. The feeling of satisfaction, if unchecked, can detract from the hunger required to keep winning.
As a member of Empire, I know the team and trust the coaches, the owners, and the attitude we’ve built this year. I’m confident that we won’t come out flat-footed. As a member of many successful Ultimate teams in the past, I also know that it never hurts to remind players that nothing about a successful past guarantees a successful future. Winning bestows blessings to those who hold it lightly.
Undefeated teams may be especially prone to overconfidence if they have won their regular season games by a large margin. That team might not be prepared for the tension of a tight game, should it face one (as may have happened in 2016 for Madison, the only team to have finished an undefeated season and not won the title – see table below).
Team (Year) |
Wins |
Losses |
Goal Differential |
Avg. Per Game Differential |
Champion? |
16 |
0 |
+171 |
+10.7 |
Yes |
|
14 |
0 |
+136 |
+9.7 |
No |
|
14 |
0 |
+134 |
+9.6 |
Yes |
|
New York Empire (2019) |
12 |
0 |
+44 |
+3.7 |
? |
Luckily, Empire doesn’t have that problem. The other three teams to record undefeated regular seasons had higher goal differentials than Empire in 2019. There are a few interpretations for why. One is that Empire isn’t as dominant as their 12-0 record suggests, but another is that there’s more parity in the league this year and, therefore, Empire has a history of coming through in clutch moments to win tight games.
Empire has no shortage of close-game experience. Three games came down to one goal (two versus DC and one versus Raleigh), and all but one ended with a margin of five goals or fewer.
There can be value in losing games during the regular season. A team gets a gut check and an opportunity to develop a grudge or build motivation. At the same time, there’s no sense in intentionally losing a game in order to try learning a lesson. Despite not losing, Empire has played enough close games this season that it’s unlikely we fall prey to overconfidence.
Fans and commentators may call Empire the favorite and give them a #1 overall seed. Those predictions have merit, but they shouldn’t exist at all in the minds of Empire players. As Jack Williams says in his recent interview, “The 12-0 record, all that goes out the window…this coming weekend… all we have ahead of us is one game to get to the final four… if we can execute the game plan, I think we have a good chance of winning.”