PHOTO BY: SHAWN LANZILLO
BY: SHAGGY SHRAGIS
After an impressive 3-0 start the Hotbirds have gone ice cold in June, dropping back to back games this weekend by nine and eight points respectively to fall to 3-4. Worse, with the head to head drubbing at the hands of Montreal Philadelphia has fallen out of the playoffs, and will now need to win difficult games against DC, New York or Boston in order to regain an edge in the competitive playoff race in the Eastern division. Week seven was always going to be difficult — the game against Boston coming one day after a Friday night matchup against Montreal necessitating long travel days in the lead up to a doubleheader — but these two losses were a worst case scenario.
The two losses are worse than they seem, with offensive explosions in the fourth quarters of both games papering over what was otherwise a dismal day for the Philly offense. These marked the sixth and seventh different starting configurations for the Philadelphia offense which has yet to field the same seven players on any starting O-line this season. The key to understanding an offense is to run it, not being able to run it with the same people makes that difficult. It has been further complicated by injuries, with Greg Martin unable to return to the lineup due to a preseason ankle malady, and Scott Heyman — an MVP candidate through the first five weeks — looking hampered in the Montreal game and sitting out of play in Boston. Philadelphia simply does not have the offensive depth, or consistency, at this point in the season to weather players of their caliber being at less than 100%.
Though the offense is a problem, Philadelphia needs an even bigger shift in defensive identity. Below is the goal map from the Montreal game, two things jump out. One is the number of short goals along the outside of the field. Philadelphia’s defense is designed to force the disc back into the middle, towards the defense in the middle of the field. The problem here is the field is so wide, if a throw does leak out to the edge, it is too far for the mark to properly set leaving the cutter defender out of position in the end zone.
Another stand out is the number of long cross, end zone throws Montreal scored on. If the disc is being forced back towards the middle of the field, the long throw is open for the thrower, who is able to throw it open side, and the cutter, whose defender is leveraged away from the far corner, are required to put themselves between the cutter and the disc. While Boston did not attack Philadelphia quite as much in this manner, Carolina did leverage this during week six. If throwers and cutters are able to attack the defense to this extent, it becomes a much less efficient proposition.
Against Boston in particular, Philly has now had three straight games where the defense failed to generate more than a single break, with the Phoenix having less than eight break opportunities. This is simply not effective enough for a team whose offense is currently, at best, average. Boston is a particularly difficult environment for Philadelphia, as it features a referee crew with a willingness to allow an increased level of physicality the Phoenix appear unable to match. If the referees are allowing teams to grab players as they start their cut, Philly needs to be able to adjust and run through the contact.
The Phoenix are on the road once again this week, traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Thunderbirds for the Commonwealth Cup. Philly has historically had the better of this matchup, losing just once in six meetings. Pittsburgh’s offense is a bad matchup stylistically as well, the Thunderbirds are averaging the third most passes per game and are bottom five in huck attempts. These are both strengths for Philadelphia, who has struggled with preventing long gains from opposing offenses.
Pittsburgh has been walloped in consecutive weeks by Minnesota and Carolina, having lost four straight games after winning their first two. Saturday is a test for a Phoenix team left reeling after losing four straight games themselves, and looking to face their second out of division opponent. Philadelphia has struggled in the first half of their losses, particularly in the second quarter, where both Montreal and Carolina blew them out. As bad as the early game has looked for Philly, Pittsburgh has looked worse. Over their four losses, the Thunderbirds have been outscored 53-21 in the first half, and enter halftime down an average of eight points, a very bad trend.
Philadelphia has put itself in a hole after a hot start to the season, and losing to Montreal by nine is a huge blow to their playoff chances. However, if they can win against a struggling Pittsburgh team, the East is still wide open. Only the Boston Glory currently look like a guaranteed playoff team, and the Phoenix are still ahead of New York and Toronto in the standings, while only just a half game behind the Royal. With a victory on Saturday, Philly can put themselves right back in playoff position. Tune into WatchUFA.tv this Saturday at 6 p.m. to see the Hotbirds battle it out for the glory of the Commonwealth.
