June 27, 2023

By Shaggy Shragis

After a beautiful bye week, the Philadelphia Phoenix enter week 10 in a three way tie for the third playoff spot with the Boston Glory and the Toronto Rush. Philly has a game against each remaining on the schedule, as well as games against Montreal and DC. With a playoff picture starting to take shape, I thought I would take today’s article to go through the different post-season Hotbird scenarios. First, let’s look at the standings:

With two wins against Boston and Philadelphia, New York is the only team in the division guaranteed a playoff spot. If they can defeat the DC Breeze on Friday, they will also secure a first round bye and lock up the division, regardless of their performance during the following week's west coast trip. DC—currently in second—has the inside track at the second playoff spot and can sneak into first with a win against New York this weekend and some bad luck for the Empire on their west coast road trip. Now that we have taken a look at the teams ahead of Philly, let’s look at some potential playoff scenarios:

1. Win and in

Not only does Philadelphia have a shot at the playoffs, they could very well find themselves hosting a playoff game come July if they can win all of the remaining games on their schedule. If DC drops their final match against New York, that will leave them at  6-3, just a game and a half ahead of Philly. Because the Hotbird loss to the Breeze came by just a single point, if the Phoenix beat DC at home July 15 by two or more points, then Philadelphia would hold the tie-breaker against DC. Both teams would finish 8-4, and James Ramp field would host the first playoff game in Philadelphia Phoenix history. If Philadelphia wins all the remaining games on their schedule, they are guaranteed a playoff spot, and a likely home game for their troubles.

2. Losing to DC

If the Breeze keep their streak of one point victories against the Phoenix alive, then the playoff waters get murkier. Philadelphia, Boston, and Toronto all have a game against each other and a game against DC on their schedules. If the Breeze win all of those games, then the final playoff spot will be determined by who wins between those remaining three teams of Philly, Boston, and Toronto. Were Philadelphia to win, they would clinch a playoff spot, even if they defeated Boston by less than three, as the Glory would finish with 6 losses to Philly’s 5. However, if Boston beats the Breeze in DC on July 8, then the final playoff spot would come down to tiebreakers, even if Philly beats the Glory at home. In that event, the Hotbirds would need to ensure that they beat Boston by more than three points, to prevent a third tie breaker scenario from arising. 

Essentially, a loss to DC only matters if DC can’t take care of business against Boston or Toronto. That would put Philly in the precarious position of relying on tie-breakers in the event of a loss to the Breeze. Toronto (in this scenario) would have lost both games to Philadelphia, and even a win over DC would leave them behind Philly in the standings. However, because the Glory beat the Phoenix in Boston, they hold the tiebreaker at the moment, and if their overall records and the head to head end the same, the final playoff spot will come down to head to head point differential, then adjusted point differential against common opponents. Boston currently holds a very narrow margin in adjusted point differential, and is +3 on Philadelphia right now in the head to head. Should the Glory beat DC, Philly will not only have to beat Boston, they will need to blow them out to ensure a playoff opportunity.

3. Beat DC, lose to Boston or Toronto

If Philadelphia loses to Boston or Toronto, it will take a near miracle for the Phoenix to make it into the playoffs, including beating  DC. Boston—who has already defeated Philadelphia once this season—would have to lose both the DC game and either a game to Montreal or Toronto. With a win in hand against Toronto, the Phoenix could drop the Rush game by less than four and still make the playoffs, provided the Rush lose to DC and Philadelphia wins the rest of their contests. While Toronto and Boston both play each other—meaning at least one is guaranteed to lose at least once—Toronto still has a game against Detroit on their schedule, a game they are likely to win. 

If the Phoenix beat the Rush and beat the Glory by four or more points, they will be almost guaranteed a playoff spot regardless of what happens against DC or against Montreal July 4 weekend. Lose to either and even a win over DC is likely not enough to make it to the postseason.

Were Philadelphia to lose two or even three games, there are convoluted and unlikely but possible ways to make the playoffs that require an active interest in advanced statistical analysis for you to read about. But to keep things simple, and for all intents and purposes, I’ll leave you with this: if the Hotbirds finish 4-0, they’re definitely going to the playoffs. 3-1 and they’re probably going to the playoffs. 2-2 and they’re probably NOT going to the playoffs (though it is still possible). 1-3 and it just ain’t happening. 0-4 and maybe it’s time for us all to find a new hobby.