July 13, 2023
By Shaggy Shragis
The Philadelphia Phoenix (5-5) will host the DC Breeze (7-3) in a rematch of a one-point thriller from week two. DC secured a playoff spot with their win over Boston last weekend, and can lock up the two-seed with a victory over Philadelphia this weekend. The Hotbirds' slim shot only exists if they can win this game, which would mean doing something Philly has not done in a very long time: beat DC.
DC is unquestionably one of the best teams in the league this season, ranking in the top seven of nearly every statistical category on both offense and defense. Their completion percentage is 95%, second in the league, and only two players who have played in at least 8 games have a completion percentage below 90%: Rhys Bergeron and AJ Merriman, both of whom play for the defense. The Breeze have lost just three games all season—two to the Empire and one to the Flyers—by a combined 5 total points.
However, despite their unassailable numbers in 2023, there are cracks in the Breeze bastion that Philly should be able to infiltrate and widen. In several games that ended in DC victories, the Breeze were unable to shut the door, and allowed teams that were seemingly out of the game to squirrel their way back within spitting distance. The May 7th Hotbird game was a great example, where DC jumped out to an eight to three lead only to watch Philadelphia claw their way back within a single point in the fourth quarter. And if James Pollard had managed to catch his last second block, we may have seen overtime.
Against Montreal and Boston, and against Carolina to begin the season, DC frittered away early game leads and required impressive fourth quarter performances to slam the door on teams that should have been down and out based on the talent disparity. Their losses to New York tell a similar story, with perfect quarters sandwiched by head scratching turnovers and mistakes. The Breeze are two bad quarters from having swept their season series with the Empire, and if Philly can capitalize on similarly subpar 12 minute stretches they might have a shot at winning the game.
If there is a weak spot for the Breeze, it’s their deep game. DC ranks dead last in hucks and hucks per game with just 50 for the entire season, and they are second to last in huck percentage. The Phoenix are average at completing hucks, but throw the most of any team in the league with 9.5 a game. With Ben Oort limited due to a leg injury, Philadelphia should take advantage of DC’s complete abandonment of the deep game by hounding underneaths, poaching to muck up the handler space, and forcing the Breeze to throw long, something they have demonstrated themselves to be uniquely uncomfortable with for the entire season. Both teams allow comparable huck completion percentages to their opponents, and if Philly can trick DC into a long range throwing contest, that should certainly favor the Phoenix.
For the Phoenix to win this game, they will need their defense to show up as impressively as it did against Carolina. The return of Max Trifillis should help, as Trifillis posted a game high +9 against DC in the first meeting back in May. Other pieces on the D-line to look for are Matt Hanna, whose streak of games with a block came to an unfortunate end against Boston, Eric Witmer, who had two blocks last time against DC, and Eric Nardelli, whose 14 blocks in games against the Breeze are tied with Colin Masino for the most blocks against DC by a Phoenix player ever. Also Mike Campanella, because it's his birthday week!
It's hard to see the Hotbirds conquering the Breeze, but it was also hard to see Philadelphia beating Carolina or losing twice to Boston. It has been a wild up and down season for the Phoenix, and despite the letdown of last week, it would be fitting for Philly to get the better of the Breeze at home (finally)! If the hucks are falling into hands instead of into the dirt, this is Philadelphia’s game to win. Phoenix over Breeze 19-18 in a defensive nailbiter in which DC leads comfortably the whole game before losing control in the fourth quarter and overtime, keeping the Phoenix playoff hopes alive! Go Hotbirds!
