July 6, 2023
By Shaggy Shragis
The Philadelphia Phoenix (5-4) host the Boston Glory (5-4) in a game that will likely decide the third and final playoff spot in the East Division. These two teams faced off week three this season, a game in which the Hotbirds shot out to a 10-3 second quarter lead, only to give up 5 straight goals in a minute of game time and eventually lose 19-16. Those seven points were the largest deficit overcome by any team this season, and it was the largest blown lead in Philadelphia history. That game also sparked a players only meeting for Philly, who has gone 5 - 1 since; in contrast to a Boston team that has won just two of its last six games.
The largest difference between these two teams comes from defensive execution. Philadelphia’s defense this season ranks top five in nearly every statistical category, and has had its most impressive performances against some of the best offenses in the league: such as the May game in DC or their June match against Carolina. The Hotbirds notch a break on 37% of all defensive possessions, the second best rate in the league. In their previous two matches, both against Montreal, that number was at 50%, meaning every time the Royale received the pull, Philly was as likely to score as Montreal was.
In the same vein Philadelphia is holding opponents to the third worst O-line conversion percentage in the league, and the fourth worst hold rate. Only the New York Empire and the Austin Sol are causing more problems for opposing offenses. Boston ranks squarely in the middle of all defensive categories, and are towards the bottom in d-line conversion—which measures how often the defense scores after they force a turnover—with four games this season in which the Glory had three or fewer breaks. Boston’s best defensive category is in the red zone, where they are holding opponents to a league worst 71% conversion rate.
Boston’s biggest problem on defense, other than not forcing enough turnovers, is their inefficiency once they do get the disc. Of the seven Glory players with the most points played on defense this season, only Gus Haflin has a completion percentage above 95%, three players are hovering around 88%, and two players have completion rates in the seventies, which is distressingly low for professional ultimate. All seven of Philadelphia’s most played defenders have completion rates in the 90s, and just two players who have played more than one game—Thomas Nye and Nate Little—have dipped below 90% (James Pollard also has a completion rate below 90% but he plays on the offense). The Glory defense is substantially worse than Philly’s, particularly when going for breaks.
On offense, the Glory hold a slight statistical edge, with a higher O-line conversion rate and better hold percentage. Philly’s offensive statistics are weighed down by having two of the worst offensive performances of the entire season in the first three games, including the actual worst game of any team this season on April 29 against New York. The Hotbirds were frozen Coldbirds that day, with a 28% hold rate and a 17% O-line conversion percentage, both the worst of any team this season. However, since the Boston vs Philly Week Three matchup, the season has gone in opposite directions for both offenses. Philly has achieved a 67% hold rate and a 55% offensive conversion percentage, compared to 61% and 47% for Boston. Two teams with comparable numbers at the moment are the DC Breeze (6-3, numbers similar to Philly) and the Madison Radicals (1-7, numbers similar to Boston).
Philly will be returning to The Ramp on Friday, a home field advantage that is impossible to overlook. While the aforementioned game in New York was the worst game for any offense all season, the next New York game in Philadelphia was one of the Phoenix’s best, converting on a season high 74% of offensive opportunities. Adam Ruffner’s current number three team, the Carolina Flyers, came into The Ramp and were summarily sent home licking their wounds after a 20-17 Hotbird victory. Much like last season, where Boston won the initial away matchup only to falter in Philadelphia with their playoff hopes on the line, this season seems to be shaping up similarly.
“I think one of the reasons is that the fans are so close to the game and actually able to interact a little more”, said Dave Hampson—former Phoenix coach and currently leader of the Hotbird superfan section—while talking about the Hotbirds’ home field advantage. “Generally, players are not really able to hear what the fans are saying specifically and are able to tune them out. In Philly, you have no choice but to listen to the crowd, given their distance from the field. I think this works to a benefit of the Phoenix. Philly fans have been known to chirp and let the other team know how we feel about them.”
In the beginning of the season, I said that the defense was playing well enough that if the offense could transition from historically terrible to just average, then the Phoenix would be one of the best teams in the league. We have arrived at average, as the Phoenix offense would be the 12th best in the league since their May 13 loss in Boston. However, that loss was to the Boston team showing up on Friday, and it was one of the 10 worst offensive performances of the season by any team in any game. Boston could reclaim whatever magic led Philly to an O-line conversion rate in the 20s and steal a game in the city of Brotherly Love, but I just don’t see it.
Importantly, if Boston beats DC on Saturday, then Philadelphia would have needed to win this game by four or more in order to snatch the tiebreaker back from the Glory. I think that will be on the mind of the players and coaching staff alike, who will look to keep their foot on the gas should the game start shaping up to be a blow out. Also, despite—or perhaps because of—all the numbers, I do not like this Glory squad very much. 22-16 Philadelphia, Go Birds.
