June 30, 2023
By Shaggy Shragis
The Philadelphia Phoenix (4-4) travel to Canada this weekend to face the Montreal Royal (0-9) for a rematch of their June 17 game, which the Hotbirds won 22-13. This will be the second Canada trip for the Phoenix, who faced Toronto earlier in June. It will also be their last road game of the regular season, as the final three matchups are all at home.
June 17 was the largest point spread of the season for Philadelphia, who started the game with a 3-0 run and continued to pile on throughout the contest. The Royal were coming off a second back to back, and will be fresh for Sunday’s contest.
That back to back was particularly apparent in the second half of the first game, where several Montreal players seemed to hit a wall. Kevin Quinlan in particular, Montreal’s primary handler, struggled to create space against Paul Owens, and finished with a season worst -1. His ability to create space in the backfield will be the biggest difference between the upcoming match and the previous contest in Philadelphia. If Quinlan can channel the dynamic and efficient playmaking he has showcased throughout his 11 season career, it will go a long way towards upsetting the Hotbirds.
Philadelphia will be making the journey without their two most prolific defenders in Max Trifillis and Eric Witmer. Both were outstanding in the June 17 game, with Max racking up a goal, assist, and block, and Witmer ending the match with a game high four assists. It will be interesting to see if the Hotbird defense can maintain its stifling downfield presence without its two best downfield defenders. Ian Dietrich will return from IR for his first game of the season, and Ben Levy will be making his career debut for the Phoenix up in Canada, and the opportunity is there to make an impact on a D-Line absent some of its brightest stars.
On the other side of the disc for Philly, the offense will look to build on its season-best 61% conversion rate, albeit in just 18 opportunities. After a rocky start to the season, Calvin Trisolini has been a menace in the backfield, averaging 3 assists per game and with just 8 turnovers in the last 5 contests. Pollard has returned to his 2022 game-wrecking form, and Alex Thorne will be making the trip North after missing the journey to Toronto. After starting the season as historically awful, the Hotbird offense has quietly become one of the more efficient and terrifying units in the league, with four straight games—not coincidentally all wins—above a 50% offensive conversion rate. In the previous game against Montreal, the Hotbirds held on 11 of 15 offensive possessions, which would be second in the league for hold rate.
The Hotbirds won their June 17 game with precision on offense and patience on defense as both lines played disciplined ultimate against a weary opponent. Eleven different Phoenix players finished that game without a turnover, and only four dipped below an 80% completion rate for the game. The bulk of Montreal’s missing personnel is on their defensive side of the disc, which should set the Hotbird offense up nicely for their best game of the season. A perfect game is out of reach for an AUDL team, but this should be the second straight contest where the O-line holds at least 70% of the time.
Despite the trap potential, it's hard to see the Royal defeating Philadelphia in this game. Montreal hasn’t beaten Philly in Canada since May 28, 2017. How long ago was that? In 2017, Marques Brownlee was on the Phoenix America’s hottest fad was eating Tide Pods. I do think we are more likely to see a game similar to the Phoenix’s last trip north, when Toronto became the first team all season to score more than 20 against the stifling Phoenix D, but Philadelphia overwhelmed the Rush in the end. Montreal has no fear when it comes to challenging teams deep, both on offense and on defense, and while I do not think this game will come down to the wire, I do think that the Royal will be on the giving and receiving end of a lot of posters, as floaty deep shots get picked off one sky after another. Hotbirds take it 31-24 and get home just in time for fireworks on July 4. They’ll then have just four days to prepare for their HUGE home matchup with Boston on July 7th. Get your tickets to that one now.
