April 26, 2023

The Hotbird Huck by Shaggy Shragis

We are finally here: opening weekend for The AUDL, and the Hotbirds could not have picked a stronger team to start the season. Philadelphia travels to New York to take on the defending champions for their first game in 2023. For New York, it's a chance to shake off the rust and start the season strong against their closest (at least geographically) opponent. For Philadelphia, it's a chance to shock the league and prove that last season’s playoff berth was no fluke.

Philly is riled up to face New York

Despite the apparent gap in stature (Ruffner’s preseason rankings had New York #1 and the Phoenix #11), Philadelphia may be as poised to take down New York as any team in the league except DC. In 2022, while undefeated through 15 games, the Empire had an average margin of victory of more than 7 points. Championship weekend, New York won their games by 6 points and 8 points respectively. New York was blowing teams out in 2022. In fact, only two teams managed to come within 2 points of victory: The DC Breeze in the playoffs who lost by one, and your red-hot Philadelphia Phoenix, who lost by two early in the season.

That game was at the start of the year. That game was windy. That game was played in a downpour. Check the forecast for New York on April 29: cold, wet, and windy. That's the recipe for a Hotbird victory on Saturday. Ultimate coaches often complain about wind and rain, but Roger Chu and Tom Glass will be looking for every advantage they can get going into the weekend, and leveling the playing field for Philadelphia with some slick, shivery spring gusts.

The Empire won their second championship last season in dominant fashion

The Empire are returning the core of perhaps the most talented team in AUDL history. The MVPs of the last three seasons in Ben Jagt and Ryan Osgar will take the field on saturday, alongside perhaps the best player in the world in Jack Williams, the best college player from 2022 in John Randolph, the all time AUDL blocks leader in Mike Drost AND number 2 on the blocks list, his brother Ryan Drost. They will have Jeff Babbit, one of the most physically dominant players in the league, Marques Brownlee, the most famous frisbee player ever, and a host of other extremely talented Ultimate stars, including former Phoenix standouts like Ethan Fortin and Shashank Alladi. They are the defending champions, and when push came to shove they dominated every other division in the league en route to a second title in three years. On paper, they are invincible.

But this game won’t be played in every other division, and it certainly won’t be played on paper. Philadelphia has shown the ability to hang with New York. In each of the last three seasons: Philadelphia has pushed the Empire to the limit, losing their three closest games by a combined five points. Those games featured inclement weather, outsized defensive effort, and an X-Factor: Greg Martin.

Greg is an elite goal scorer, capable of getting open in the deep space and elevating over anyone in the league. In 4 games over the last two seasons against New York, Martin has scored 21 points, and was Philadelphia’s scoring leader in all except one (where James Pollard had an impressive 6-goal outing). Despite huge defenders on the Empire, New York has struggled to contain Philadelphia’s air raid offense. Hotbird big disc hurlers Jordan Rhyne and Alex Thorne, as well as multi positional stars in Sean Mott and James Pollard, have demonstrated the ability to carve up opposing defenses and fire it deep to Martin when the opportunity presents itself. And interesting to note; Jordan Rhyne, who was 3rd in the league in passing yards per game last year, did not play in either New York game.

Offense isn’t everything however, and for Philadelphia to win, they will need an impressive defensive performance: both guarding New York’s stars and scoring breaks on a turn. Last season Philadelphia forced more turns per game than any other Empire opponent, and the Hotbirds were top ten in takeaways. Yet they ranked near the bottom of the AUDL in breaks, with just 21% of opponent turnovers resulting in scores. That trend was even worse against New York, where Philadelphia converted just 4 of 38 break opportunities, a paltry 10%.

The Hotbirds will need their defense to turn blocks into goals on Saturday, and they’ll need to do it without Matt Esser, tied for the Philadelphia Phoenix all time leader in blocks, who retired last season (Esser is tied with current Hotbird stalwart Eric Nardelli). Captain Paul Owens, who the Empire’s own Jack Williams called, “...impressive…”, will lead the way, but it will be a collective effort from the Philadelphia defense that will determine who wins and who loses on opening night. 

My Prediction: 20-18, Empire narrowly escape with a win after starting down in the fourth quarter and scoring a meaningless buzzer beater on a Philadelphia turn on the last possession to stretch a one point nail biter to a two point victory. Regardless of the outcome, I’ll be tuned in, watching the action and cheering on the Hotbirds