Photo: Shawn Lanzillo 

By: Shaggy Shragis 

The Philadelphia Phoenix are playing bad. Very, very bad. Philly (0-4) plays host to fellow bottom dweller Toronto Rush (1-2) in a win-or-pack-it-in matchup for both teams; neither squad has a path to the playoffs with fewer than 8 wins.

Toronto’s dreary start included a blowout loss to Boston and a disappointing 15-12 defeat at the hands of fellow Canadians, the Montreal Royal. Their single win came in a cross division matchup against the Pittsburgh Thunderbirds, who would be in last place in the Central Division were it not for the ever reliable Detroit Mechanix, who have not won a game since Elizabeth Holmes was still running Theranos. 

Toronto returns exciting playmaker Akifumi Muraoka this year, who put up big numbers with the Rush during his previous run with the team in 2019. He’s started this season off on a similar trajectory, with 8 assists, 5 goals, and 3 blocks through 3 games. He also tends to be erratic with the disc, converting just a hair over 90% of his throws.

Muraoka is not the only member of the Rush to struggle with completions. The Toronto Seven find themselves in the bottom 10 of completion percentage, and third worst at hucks, where they are successfully throwing it deep 48% of the time. This is a substantial departure from last year’s strength, when the Rush were near the top of the league in completed hucks per game.

One explanation for the Rush offensive dip is probably the departure of the Lewis brothers. James Lewis led the team in receiving yards, and brother Wilkie was top 10 despite only playing half the season. Ty Barbieri, another key cog in the Rush deep game, has also left the team. With three of their top deep threats, it is no wonder that Toronto is struggling to find their flow on offense.

Of course, if there is a team struggling to find their offensive flow more than the Rush, it is the Philadelphia Phoenix, who have no excuse as they returned all of their offensive starters. Philadelphia’s offense regressed below the 50% mark for the third time in four games, failing to convert on at least half of their offensive possessions in their previous game against New York.

Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of the Philadelphia offense in 2024 is how singularly bad they are at getting the disc back after a turnover. The Phoenix are allowing the highest D-line conversion in the league, a brutal 62.3%. That means that every time the Philadelphia offense turns it over, the opposing team has a nearly 2/3rds chance to get the break. For reference, an average number in the league would be 45%, almost 20 percentage points lower. Philly’s offense turns it over a lot, and when they do, they are singularly terrible at getting it back.

This disturbing state of affairs is contributing to Philadelphia’s worst defensive performance ever. Opposing teams are turning it over just 9 times a game against the Phoenix. Part of that low turnover rate is their defense, which is averaging just under 4 break chances a game. Another part of that is the offense, which can neither convert holds nor get the disc back when they inevitably turn it. The New York game was certainly an improvement from the first two Philly games of the season in terms of offensive conversion—they managed 13 holds versus just 9 per game against DC and Boston—but Philadelphia still cannot get the disc back.

Philly’s defense is not forcing turns, but to be fair to the D-line, they are barely getting any opportunities. The offense needs to figure itself out, and fast. One option could be to utilize O2, the backup O431-line, more frequently. Despite the catastrophic failures from the starting offensive line, O2 has seen the field just 9 times this season, just a hair over 2 times per game. For a unit built to give the offense rest while still scoring, this is way too few appearances for an offense that needs a whole bunch of rest.

There is no break for Philadelphia’s offensive troubles in this upcoming game. Despite having played the struggling Hotbird offense, Boston, DC, and New York all rank near the bottom of the league in opponent turnovers per game. Conversely, Toronto ranks somewhere near the middle. Despite not scoring the disc particularly well, the Rush seem equipped to stop the other team from scoring. Philadelphia have not lost a game to Toronto since 2018; however, this is a much shakier version of the Phoenix than we have seen take on the Rush in a very long time. If Philadelphia could not string together offensive series against the Glory, who are very bad at defense, it is difficult to project them scoring efficiently against the Rush, who have an average defense.

With all that being said, I can’t pick against the Hotbirds in this game. Partially because the conceit of the writing experience has been to never pick against the Birds, but also because Philadelphia has so thoroughly owned this matchup for the last five years. In fact, it was Philadelphia, not Boston, who knocked Toronto out of playoff contention last season, as the Rush playing and winning non conference games against Detroit and Pittsburgh should theoretically put them ahead of the Glory even if they lose the games to Boston. But they were swept by Philadelphia in 2023, they were swept in 2022, and by golly I am predicting a sweep of Toronto by the Birds in several different colors for another season. Philadelphia Phoenix 22, Toronto Rush 15. Go Birds!

You can purchase tickets to the Hotbirds vs Toronto game here. Or you can purchase tix for the Phoenix-Surge doubleheader here.