June 15, 2023
By Shaggy Shragis
The Philadelphia Phoenix (3-4) host the Montreal Royal (0-5) at home at Ramp Memorial Stadium on Saturday night. For Philadelphia, it's a chance to break their most confounding losing streak in recent memory. For the Royal, it's an opportunity to notch their first win of the season against a Philly team that has been building momentum with three straight wins.
First that losing streak: Philadelphia has not beaten Montreal at home since 2018. That includes last year's heartbreaking loss on a buzzer beater, and a 2019 loss where a Montreal team that ended the season 3-9 blew Philly out 25-15. Despite the Hotbirds successes in Montreal, where they’ve won the last four meetings, Philadelphia has only won a single game against the Royal in the USA, a 27-19 shellacking way back in 2018. No matter the expectations or the record, Montreal’s performance in PA is one of the most perplexing statistical oddities in the AUDL.
It does not seem like the streak will continue this season. Montreal’s 0-5 start obfuscates just how bad this year has gone for the Royal. After falling to Boston at home 22-12 last weekend, Montreal now holds the unfortunate distinction of being the least efficient offense in the league. At just a 34% O-line conversion rate, nearly two thirds of every Montreal offensive possession features at least one turnover. Not since Detroit in 2017 has an offense turned the disc over this frequently. The gap between Montreal and Philadelphia—the sixth worst team—is the same as the gap between the Hotbirds and the New York Empire.
Part of the problem for Montreal is they lost two of their best players. Quentin Bonnaud—number one in plus/minus and goals scored for the Royal—is one of the premier AUDL receivers, and was sidelined this year due to injury. The Royal also lost Andre Arsenault, another elite goal scorer who had played with Montreal since 2015. Furthermore, only five players: veteran handlers Kevin Quinlan and Malik Auger-Semmar, hybrid Antoine Rousseau, and rookies Dylan Lacombe-Burgoyne and Melvyn Brichet (Burgoyne and Brichet are both slated to be out on Saturday), have made it to all five games. Much like the Phoenix of yesteryear, Montreal is discovering just how difficult it is to win games without consistent buy-in from the roster.
One cannot overemphasize just how big a loss Bonnaud and Arsenault are to Montreal. It would be as if Mott and Greg Martin both decided to skip the 2023 season for the Hotbirds. With several other key departures, particularly from the Montreal offense, the result is a Royal riddled with inconsistency and throwing turnovers that are bound to come from so many new pieces. This is another opportunity for Philadelphia’s defense to enforce its will upon a northern foe, particularly after a difficult game against Toronto where the Rush seemed to get whatever they wanted deep.
Hotbird handler defenders are likely to have a field day against the rough and tumble Royal backfield. Paul Owens, Justin Keller, and Mike Campanella, should get reinforcements in the form of Brandon Pastor, who will return to the D-line after playing offense in Canada, along with Andres Rodriguez, who's primed for another big game after his breakout performance against Carolina. Most interesting will be the play of Philly’s top defenders: Max Trifillis and Eric Witmer. Both were on the losing end of a fatal flaw in the Hotbird defensive game plan against Toronto that saw them roasted deep time and time again. Look for both players, particularly Witmer, to start this game hungry for blood.
Even if this contest turns one sided for the Hotbirds, there is still a vested rooting interest in piling on. The final playoff spot could very well come down to tiebreakers between Boston, Philadelphia, and Toronto. If Philly beats Toronto at home and defeats Boston at home by more than 3, it becomes a moot point and Philly should secure the final playoff spot. However, if Philadelphia beats Boston by exactly three, or loses to Toronto by exactly four, then the tiebreakers will go to adjusted point differential against common opponents—a nightmare scenario that cost the Surge a playoff spot when for some reason it was the first tie breaker ahead even record or head to head performance.
In that scenario, Boston is currently +12 against Montreal through two games, and Toronto is +8. Both teams will play Montreal a third time this season, meaning should they win, their point differentials will be averaged and compared to an average of Philadelphia's performance against Montreal in just two games. If the current averages hold, the Phoenix would need to beat the Royal by at least 7 in order to take the lead in that particular playoff race. Philadelphia also has an opportunity to snag a home playoff game if they can win their July 15th game against the DC Breeze. If that game comes down to a one point victory, and both teams finish with the same record, then the adjusted point differential for Montreal would once again play a factor.
The defense, and just as importantly the offense, has been lights out at home against two of the best teams in the league—the New York Empire and the DC Breeze—and now have an opportunity to tee off against one of the worst performing teams in league history. Hotbirds by 20, nay 25, as the game devolves into a Western Conference debacle between Portland missing its best players and the Shred at home. Go Birds!
