Photo by Kevin Leclaire – UltiPhotos.com
JUNE 22, 2025
By Kyle Turnbaugh
With the DC Breeze on a bye week after a tough loss to the Empire, now feels like an opportune time to look at the Breeze’s playoff picture, as they sit at 4-4 in a tough East Division.
The Retrospective
At 4-4, this might not be the position that many fans thought the Breeze would be in at the start of the season, as most pundits saw the Breeze as neck and neck with the high-flying Boston Glory throughout the preseason. However, most people didn't predict how strong the entirety of the East would be. The New York Empire, despite some struggles, are still a threat, and the Montreal Royal, Philadelphia Phoenix and Toronto Rush are all competitive teams that have proven they can take down contenders on any given day. The Breeze’s shocking week one loss to the Phoenix proved not just to be a flash in the pan, but rather evidence of the new parity in the East, which the Breeze have more than experienced on their trips to Toronto and Montreal, where the Rush nearly took the Breeze down and the Royal easily handled DC in Quebec.
Absences have plagued DC all season, and contributed significantly to losses against Philadelphia and New York; however, many will argue that great teams throughout UFA history have won in spite of absences, and if the Breeze want to summit the UFA’s toughest division, they will need all of their depth to contribute. The Breeze have also had issues with consistency, as some games the offense shows up, and some games the defense does, but they have had trouble putting it all together and being consistent on both sides of the disc. This was perhaps most evident in the back-to-back matchups against the Empire, where the defense had nine breaks in the home game and then followed it up with a much less impressive two-break performance in New York. The offense has stuck to its style and seemed to work out its kinks in recent weeks. Besides a dismal performance at Montreal, the Breeze offense seems to be the possession-dominating, efficient offense that was envisioned at the start of the season.
In terms of standout stars for the Breeze, the familiar names have stepped up. Jacques Nissen quarterbacks the O-line and has nearly 3000 throwing yards and 1500 receiving yards. Rowan McDonnell provides a veteran hybrid presence and has accumulated 36 total scores over eight games. Cole Jurek continues to be an elite redzone threat, leading the team with 26 goals. Some surprises for the Breeze include third-year D-line player Miles Grovic, who has taken a huge step up and leads the team with eight blocks. New arrival Aidan Downey has instantly made an impact, with 6 assists and 3 goals in just two games playing both sides of the disc. Of the rookies, Micah Wagner on defense and Coby Loveranes have made the biggest impact, with Wagner logging three blocks and Loveranes notching five goals.
The Matchups
The Breeze still have four games to go: two at home against Montreal and Boston and two on the road against Philadelphia and Boston. DC has lost to all of these teams at some point of the season already, and probably needs to win at least two of these games to secure a playoff slot.
The Breeze start off by hosting Montreal, a team who they lost to on the road the day after a tough win in Toronto. The last matchup between the Breeze and Royal can be taken with a grain of salt, as the fresh Royal faced off against a fatigued and injured Breeze in adverse conditions. Nonetheless, the Royal dominated the last matchup, despite the circumstances. The Royal sit at 3-5 but surprised many around the league when they went on a three-game run, defeating New York, DC and Philadelphia at home. Few expected much out of the Royal, who lost star player Tobe Decraene and didn't really add many big names, so the fact that they have been so competitive in the division has been surprising. Quentin Bonnaud, Christophe Tremblay-Joncas, and Philippe Le Bourdais have led the Canadian squad that are full of speed and never afraid to shoot deep. The difficulties for Montreal have come on the road, where they are 0-4. DC will hope that pattern continues when the Royal come to Carlini Field.
After playing at home against Montreal, the Breeze will hit the road for their second matchup of the season against Boston. Boston shut down DC’s offense in the last matchup, holding the Breeze to just 11 goals and forcing 22 turnovers with their physicality and ability to contest every throw. Jeff Babbitt, Tannor Johnson-Go, and Orion Cable have led Boston to their current undefeated status, but they have not looked immortal, surviving scares from the Empire, Royal, and Rush at various points of the season. A win against the Glory would be huge for the Breeze’s season, not only for moving them up the standings, but also for the legitimacy that unseating an undefeated team would bring as we move closer to the playoffs. After the road trip to Boston, the Breeze will face the Glory for the third time this season and second time at home. As mentioned earlier, the last time these teams faced off at Carlini Field, it was a one-sided affair that looked a little better on the final scoreboard because DC scored a few late goals. For the Breeze to take down Boston, they need to clean up a few areas. One of those areas, and one of the most important aspects of the UFA, is end-of-quarter situations. The Breeze have often given their opponents a bit too much room to breathe and have given up endzone shots that are easier then they should have been. If the Breeze can dominate when the clock is ticking down, that could swing a close game in their favor.
Finally, the Breeze’s season ends just how it began, with a matchup against the Philadelphia Phoenix. The first game against the Phoenix was DC’s opening day, and the Breeze were missing key personnel, but also didn't seem to have an offensive identity. The Breeze threw an uncharacteristic 12 hucks, and only connected on two. Even though DC has improved a ton over the season and Philly has cooled off a little since their 3-0 start, the Phoenix are still full of elite talent and should not be taken lightly. Sean Mott and Brandon Pastor are as consistent as ever for the Phoenix, and Scott Heyman is having an All-UFA level season. With Philadelphia also sitting at 4-4 at the moment, it seems likely that this end-of-season matchup could have serious playoff implications; it could decide who gets the 2nd and 3rd seeds in the East or who even makes the playoffs at all.
The Verdict
As it stands, the Breeze are in a playoff spot, and most likely need to win just two of their final four matchups to secure the third seed. Every team in the East still has a chance to qualify for the playoffs, including the Toronto Rush, who sit at the bottom of the Division standings, despite their impressive offense. However, it is most likely that the Breeze will be competing with New York, Montreal and Philadelphia for just two playoff spots. For the Breeze, if they don't make the playoffs, it would be a tremendous disappointment for what was viewed as a top five team going into the season. But, if they do get it done and make the playoffs, it feels like it's possible for this team to accomplish anything.
Be sure to be on the lookout for in-depth previews and recaps for the next four games as the Breeze continue to push for the playoffs and hopefully reach Championship Weekend in Madison, Wisconsin.
