Hotbird Huck: Double Header in Canada

Philadelphia (2-6) trounced the visiting Montreal Royal (2-6) 21 to 10. It was the largest margin of victory in Phoenix history. Several players had standout performances, including a career high 7 goals for Dmitry Suvorov, another 400+ yard game from Scott Heyman, and the first multi-block performance for rookie Trevor Griesman. It was also another successful arrow in the offensive quiver for o-line newcomers Brandon “The Answer” Pastor and Eric “The Rebuttal” Nardelli, who are currently the only Phoenix players with 20 or more offensive points played and an offensive efficiency score of 60% or better. At this point, if the goal of the offense is to score points, it would be irresponsible to run lines without them on it.

Philly will look to carry their big win momentum on the bus with them this weekend, as they travel to take on the 1 - 8 Toronto Rush and the 2 - 6 Montreal Royal in the all Canada rematch. The Hotbirds have already played the Rush once this season, a heart stopper of a game where Philadelphia fell behind 10 - 2 before clawing their way back to an 18 - 16 victory. Hopefully Philly can more effectively handle the Rush this time around in Toronto.

Under Coach Roger Chu’s tenure, the Phoenix are just 1-17 against DC, NY, and Boston, and 14 - 1 against all other opponents—the one loss coming against Montreal on a buzzer beater—including out of division games against Carolina and Pittsburgh. For whatever reason, Hotbird games against non Breeze, Empire, and Glory opponents feature a dramatically different team, at almost every level. This year Philadelphia has notched 35 total breaks. 19 were in their two games against Canada, while they scraped together the other 16 in the 6 other games. That is just under 10 breaks again against Montreal and Canada, and less than three against everyone else. Throughout Coach Chu’s time with the team, they have averaged nearly 10 breaks per game against other opponents, and just over 5 breaks again against NY, BOS, and DC.

While the defense may come and go, the offense, which struggled to start the year, has been operating at peak efficiency over the last two games. Philadelphia finally bucked their terrible hold trends, and earned the disc back against Montreal four times, for an enviable hold rate of 92%. This is the first two game stretch where the o line has converted 65% or more possessions into goals for the first time in Phoenix history. The chemistry formed between Pastor, Nardelli, Heyman, Mott, Rhyne, and Dmitry Suvorov has radically changed the scoring outlook for the team, and rather than hindering it, spot minutes for Thorne, Campy, and Maroon have all buoyed the offensive outlook for the team.

Toronto has performed poorly all season, and I would set the line in that game at Philadelphia -3.5, despite it being in Canada. Montreal is a different story. The Royal had an exciting start to the season, nearly defeating Boston, New York, and DC, before the wheels came off this past weekend. In part, their run and gun style had run a little hot, and variance suggested that a weekend like this past one was coming, but this was out of character even as a statistical anomaly. It bears mentioning that this was the biggest win in Phoenix history.

Montreal cut their teeth in the first six games by outclassing their opponents athletically, and relying on big plays from big stars. What was so shocking about the games this past weekend was how ineffective Decraene and Bonnaud were, and how badly everyone played around them. For those who had seen just the single Royal game, that was a shockingly bad performance for a team that, until last weekend, considered itself in the mix to steal the spot from New York. Philly should still be favored in this game, but I think it will be a closer contest, and have the line at Phoenix -1.5.

Another interesting story to watch for has been the ascendance of Dmitry Suvorov. At least two people have mentioned to me that he looks like the best player on the Phoenix, and the numbers the past few games have backed it up. The PUL Championship winning coach Suvorov leads the team with 21 goals, and is second only to Max Trifillis in plus minus. Philly felt a bit snubbed—understandable after big wins from Detroit and Atlanta—this weekend in the honor roll, with players like Greg Martin, Scott Heyman, and Dmitry Suvorov all having very impressive individual performances. If Suvorov can close the season with a few more 7+ goal showings, it will be hard to keep him away from UFA honors for much longer.

Any double header weekend is difficult, particularly when the team is already eliminated from playoffs. However, neither Montreal nor Toronto is still alive in the playoff race either, and in a battle of wills I choose to believe in the team that has won the last 9 in a row in the matchup. Philly will pull out of this weekend with a three game winning streak, beating the Rush by 5 on Saturday before surviving in a squeaker 20-18 against Montreal on Sunday. Go birds!