The Rebellion’s Last Stand

The Philadelphia Phoenix (1-5) take on the third place New York Empire (4-3) in a last ditch effort to spark a run and make the playoffs. New York is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time since 2018,  after falling to Boston and DC in consecutive weeks. Philadelphia’s losing streak stands at just 1, but it was a brutal one, losing by 10 in Boston.

New York’s half decade of dominance is a thing of the past. The departures of several key stars—including both former MVPs, Ryan Osgar and Jeff Babbitt—and half of their head coach in Charlie Hoppes, has left them a hobbled shell of their former selves. From 2019 to 2023, the Empire lost three total games, one of which was in the championship match. They have lost three games this season, including their first ever loss to division opponent Boston Glory. Both their offense and defense are outside the top five since their first title in 2019. Even the pieces that stayed have found themselves filling different roles, with Ben Jagt, Jon Randolph, Oliver Chartock, Jeff Holm, and Ethan Fortin all shifting from defensive to offense this season to fill the numerous departures.

That shift is a large part of their biggest issue: they cannot get stops. Last season the Empire were second in the league in blocks per game with 11.4, and 11th in opponent turns. This season they are bottom five in both categories. Of the Empire’s five top blog getters from 2023, only two remain in their defensive slots. Jeff Babbitt has fled north for Glory, while Randolph and Jagt both find themselves spending time on offense. This game will feature an even thinner roster for New York, with Antoine Davis, Ben Jagt, Ryan Drost, John Randolph, and Bretton Tan, all absent for world games responsibilities, while Oliver Chartock and Axel Agami are also slated to miss the contest.

Fortunately for the Empire defense, they are taking on the second worst non-Detroit offense in UFA history. Philadelphia is on a historic run of being terrible with the disc in their hands. Since 2017, only two teams, Detroit and Tampa Bay, have held on fewer than 50% of their opportunities. Philly comes into this game with a 48.9% hold rate. Their inability to score is as perplexing as it is distressing. All seven players leading the team in offensive points played: Mott, Trisolini, Martin, Rhyne, Suvorov, Owens, and Thorne, are completing above 92% of their throws, and only two of those players: Mott and Thorne, are below 95%. The Phoenix have never had all 7 players complete above 90% of their throws, let alone 92%.

Only seven teams in the league—Indianapolis, DC, New York, Carolina, Boston, Atlanta, and Minnesota—have similar completion numbers from their offensive players, and coincidentally those are 5 of the 7 teams with the highest hold rates, and all seven are in the top half of the league in holds. The Phoenix are second to last. So it is not the team’s ability to hold on to the frisbee (the Phoenix have the eighth highest completion percentage in the league), but rather their inability to get the disc back, and their insistence on throwing turnovers in terrible positions, that costs the team.

New York is coming into the game with an average scoring defense, converting a mediocre 48% on break opportunities. Against Philadelphia on 5/24, they converted on 10 of 14 chances, an incredible of 70% (they are just 26 of 61 in all non Phoenix games). Both DC and Toronto also had extreme outlier performances from their defense converting breaks, suggesting that it isn’t their defense that is good at scoring, rather Philly’s offense which is particularly bad at scoring.

None of this gets any easier with the absence of Calvin Trisolini, arguably Philadelphia’s most consistent member of the offensive backfield. Coach Chu has had Peter Cauchy and Mark Philipson taking offensive handler reps at different points this season, and both are options for this game. From my perspective, I would also move Jordan Rhyne to defense and have him cover Ethan Fortin or Charles Weinberg. Weinberg is a savvy cutter who uses positioning and quick adjustments in field awareness, as opposed to speed, to create space downfield, and Fortin represents a similar presence as a handler. Rhyne is one of the few Phoenix players experienced enough to guard that sort of player, and is adept at using his size to take away opportunities.

I would probably play Mark Phillipson in the backfield this game on offense. I think Mark has demonstrated a good sense of how to use space and has a 100% completion rate on 35 attempts. I would also consider moving Mike Campanella over to offense. Campy is a 97% thrower, higher than Jordan, Mott, Calvin, Alex, or Paul Owens, all of whom have played that role this season. He also provides a level of athleticism and defensive aptitude that the offense sorely needs. Although he is a key cog for the d-line, Campy leaving the d-line is unlikely to have the same trickle down disastrous effects we saw when Trifillis and Owens were moved to O, particularly with Jordan Rhyne taking some of those touches.

A more difficult conversation to have is what is wrong with Sean Mott. This is Mott’s worst season in his career, and it is not close. He is struggling to convert with his legs and his arms, as he is on pace for 500 fewer receiving yards this season and twice as many turnovers when compared to his 2023 campaign. There is no stat to back this up, but Mott has come off the field due to injury more times this season than I can remember during his 10 year career. It genuinely appears as if he is hampered by a nagging injury that will require several weeks of rest and rehabilitation to fix, not just the few points he is allowing himself to recuperate on the sideline. Mott at 100% is one of the most devastating players in the league, I will defend that to anyone, and both he and the Philly coaching staff need to identify how to get him back to that level. I would not play Mott this game if there are any questions about his health, and I would piece together his production with Michael Maroon, Scott Heyman and Brandon Pastor. None of those players can approximate Sean Mott at full strength, but Mott is not playing at full strength. Paul Owens would also be a partial solution to Philly’s offensive troubles against New York. My suggestion would be to ask Paul if he wants to play a point, and if he does I would send him out to play. If that means that Paul plays 30 points then so be it. The more points Paul plays, the better.

Despite starting out the season 1-5, Philadelphia will play just one playoff team from 2023 in their final five games. By contrast, New York still needs to host DC and Salt Lake, and travel to Minnesota to play the first place Wind Chill. Those are two teams from 2023’s championship weekend and a DC squad that already defeated the Empire. If the Hotbirds can pull off the upset at home, they have a realistic chance of finishing the season 6-6, while the Empire could very well find themselves at 5-7. As strange as it sounds, that is just about the Phoenix’s only chance at still making the playoffs (technically the Phoenix could win every game and DC and Boston could lose every game, but Boston only has games against last place Toronto and Montreal remaining, while DC has three such matches). I will believe in this column's ability to confidently say that the Phoenix will win the game until I am told to stop writing it, regardless of how unlikely that outcome actually is. Philadelphia 16 - New York 15. Go Birds!