Tuesday Toss: Previewing Divisional Championship Weekend

August 6, 2024
By Evan Lepler

Two weeks from now, Championship Weekend will be the true culmination of the 2024 season, a celebration of excellence with four division champs competing across three consequential games in one single location with everything at stake. The entire season hangs in the balance, and the iconic moments will resonate forever. 

Meanwhile, all the details from Divisional Championship Weekend can be more quickly forgotten, overshadowed by the even bigger games ahead. But that’s not meant to minimize the magnitude of pressure and legacy that exists for the final eight teams during the often thrilling penultimate weekend of the season. 

The last 12 division title games—every one since 2021—have all been decided by five goals or less. Over the past four seasons, slightly under 60 percent of all UFA games have been decided by those small margins. Clearly, the competition in the division final usually features teams that are pretty evenly matched. In fact, there’s been at least one division championship game decided by just one goal in each of the past three seasons. 

This year, all four matchups feel like they could be super tight and go right down to the wire. 

In the South, Carolina and Atlanta split their four regular season matchups, with the Flyers narrowly outscoring the Hustle 81-79 across all the games. Of course, the Hustle have the momentum, riding the league’s longest active winning streak—which includes a pair of victories over the Flyers—into Friday night’s affair.

In the East, Boston and DC will likely experience similar nerves, as neither franchise has ever previously advanced to Championship Weekend. During the season, the Glory and Breeze squared off twice, each prevailing by one in a low-scoring contest on their home field. And in each of those games, the trailing team got a finger-tip on the potential equalizer as time expired.

The Central showdown features Madison and Minnesota, two teams that will be playing each other for the 34th time on Saturday night. But it’s the first time ever that the Radicals and Wind Chill will meet in the playoffs. Minnesota won both regular season matchups, but Madison has played its best ultimate down the stretch, while the Wind Chill haven’t beaten anyone other than Detroit since late June. More than anything, the tremendous familiarity and history between these two organizations suggests to me that neither will be able to put the game out of reach through the first three quarters. 

Out West, Seattle and Salt Lake will provide the grand finale for the four-game weekend, and this is the only divisional final where the teams just met once during the regular season. The Shred claimed victory at home on July 19, though the Cascades won each of the final two quarters in that game, outscoring Salt Lake 11-8 in the second half of a game they ultimately lost 18-16. Home field advantage surely matters as an intangible boost to the Shred’s chances, however there’s also an undeniable pressure on Salt Lake’s shoulders, knowing that they are also hosting Championship Weekend and need to deliver in the West final to earn the opportunity to play in the league’s marquee event on its home field. 

Every year, teams that believe they can go all the way fall short in the quarterfinals. That will certainly be the case again this weekend, where four Championship Weekend trips will be joyously unlocked, while four other teams will face the difficult decision of whether to even bother watching the biggest games of the season two weeks later. 

The Full Field Layout

Time to dive a little bit deeper into the four matchups, beginning with the fifth and final meeting of the year between Carolina and Atlanta. 

Since the beginning of this rivalry, the Flyers have been the big brother, owning a physical and mental advantage over the Hustle. But there’s also no doubt that this dynamic has been shifting in recent seasons.

“The last two seasons, we’ve changed the narrative just a little bit,” said Hustle Coach Tuba Benson-Jaja. 

Last year, Atlanta went 3-1 against Carolina and advanced further in the playoffs than the Flyers for the first time since 2016. This year, both teams held serve at home, and the difference between the Hustle and Flyers in the South standings came down to Atlanta going 3-0 against interdivisional opponents, while Carolina went 2-1, losing handily at DC on June 28.  

Consequently, the Hustle are at home on Friday night, a fact that looms large since eight of the last nine meetings in this rivalry have been won by the home team. Atlanta has also won 14 of its last 15 games at home, though it’s virtually impossible to completely eliminate the lone loss, last year’s double overtime South Division title game devastation against Austin, from everyone’s mind. 

“We’re dealing with playoff demons,” said Benson-Jaja. “We have to believe that we’ve done enough to win this playoff game. Last year, I think we did enough. One throw off doesn’t tell me that we didn’t do enough. And we’re definitely a better team than we were last year.”

Indeed, the Hustle overcame a very daunting schedule to go 10-2 while averaging just 12 turnovers per game, tied with this year’s DC Breeze squad for the fewest turns per game in a full season in UFA history. Whereas Atlanta did not lead the league in huck completion rate like they did in 2022 and 2023, they were still maintained the third-highest huck completion rate (66.2 percent) in the league, and the Hustle’s 86.8 percent red zone conversion percentage ranked number one across the Association. 

Furthermore, the biggest difference between last year’s Hustle and this year’s edition is the team’s efficiency with the disc on D-line possessions, improving that standard from 52.8 percent, which ranked 11th last year, to 59.7 percent, fourth-best in the league in 2024. Combining that with the team’s top-ranked offense has transformed Atlanta from solid contender to the short list of title favorites. 

The Hustle will be without the injured Matt Smith (broken collarbone) and Lukas McClamrock on Friday, but they will get Justin Burnett, the defensive standout who celebrates his 22nd birthday tomorrow, back for the first time since late June. That’s a big deal for Atlanta. Among the 67 players league-wide that finished with double-digit blocks and played at least five games, Burnett is one of just three players to record a block in every single game he played. 

With Burnett joining Michael Fairley, Adam Miller, and Dean Ramsey as key D-line playmakers, the Hustle are hoping their O-line can stay steady. Austin Taylor and Bobby Ley are the team’s two quarterbacks, while MVP candidate Brett Hulsmeyer leads a fierce cutter core downfield. 

Does Carolina have the defense firepower to match up Atlanta’s size, strength, and skill? Ordinarily, I’d say absolutely they do, however Drew Swanson and John Wellers, two of the team’s top five block-getters this year, are currently not listed as active. Trevor Lynch, another important piece and one of the captains of the D-line, is questionable, as is Sol Yanuck, the experienced playmaker with a knack for coming up huge when it counts most. If those four individuals are either out or not 100 percent, then the Flyers will probably need to play their best offensive game of the season. They did not come close to doing that in the final meeting of the regular season, when the Flyers were plagued by five drops.

Offensively, Carolina’s Jacob Fairfax, Anders Juengst, and Allan Laviolette could all potentially earn All-UFA honors at the end of the playoffs. These three dynamic threats, all capable of erupting for 10 or more scores and numerous highlight-reel moments, are complemented by another pair of emerging stars in Tobias Brooks and Dylan Hawkins, both of whom could realistically ‘make the leap’ in the next couple weeks.

But in the Flyers’ two games in Atlanta this season, Carolina’s offense was broken 16 teams in 24 chances. In contrast, the Hustle’s offense only surrendered three breaks per game in those two home wins. 

“We have been stress testing through the season and have looked at these recent games against great teams such as Atlanta and DC as critical reps for experiencing crunch time come the playoffs,” said Flyers Captain William Coffin, after the regular season finale. “We have a really young team this year and are putting young and talented players in critical positions on the field. Our rookies and young core have stepped up in huge ways, and I think that the few losses this year have hardened our team and prepared us for the adversity we will likely see during the playoffs.”

Carolina leads the all-time series against Atlanta 15-11, but the Hustle have won the only previous postseason matchup, when league MVP Dylan Tunnell engineered a road upset in the first round back in 2016. The Flyers’ ceiling suggests that they are certainly capable at playing at a high enough enough level to win this game, but if both teams deliver their A-plus, it’s the ATL that will likely prevail.

Ever since Atlanta ended New York’s 31-game winning streak back in early May, I’ve looked at the Hustle as one of the championship favorites. Now, they ride a nine-game winning streak into Friday’s South Division final, and I think they will make history and advance to their first Championship Weekend.

The Pick: Atlanta 21, Carolina 17

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Statistically, the DC Breeze are right up there with Atlanta. 

In fact, after their uncharacteristic 21 turnover performance in their season-opening loss in Salt Lake, the Breeze have averaged just 11.2 turns per game ever since. Considering that their 12 turns per contest season-ending mark was tied with the Hustle for the best in UFA history, it’s fair to say that DC’s possession-preserving excellence over the past 11 games has been the best 11-game stretch we’ve ever seen.

But the Boston Glory are not that far behind. Including their playoff victory over New York, the Glory have averaged 12.9 turns per game in 13 games, fourth-best in the league. 

It’s easy to be mesmerized by Boston’s big-man trio, and there’s no doubt that Jeff Babbitt, Orion Cable, and Tannor Johnson-Go will loom large on Saturday night. Furthermore, the Breeze are definitely not a team with overwhelming size, and that should give the Glory’s giants opportunities to win aerial battles, especially at the end of quarters. 

But the engines of Boston’s offense this year have undoubtedly been Ben Sadok and Ned Dick, two small, slippery, instinctive handlers that will have the disc in their hands a ton on Saturday. Over the course of the season, Sadok and Dick have each been among the all-time leaders in touches per possessions in league history. Since 2021, only Jonny Malks’ 2021 season with the Breeze, Henry Goldenberg’s 2023 season with the Radicals, and Pawel Janas’ 2024 season with the Aviators are also among the top eight all-time touches per possession season along with Sadok and Dick’s high-volume involvement this year. 

Consequently, that’s probably the duo that the Breeze defense will try and attack. In David Bloodgood, Troy Holland, and Jasper Tom, DC has a bunch of feisty, experienced, and confident handler defenders capable of disrupting any opponent’s rhythm. And while DC’s downfield defenders still will be smaller than their cutting counterparts, 2024 rookies like Miles Grovic and Jace Dean, who both will be playing their first playoff games in the UFA, will be important athletic stoppers to throw at Boston’s beasts. 

Thinking about Boston’s defense, the Glory were able seriously fluster and frustrate the Empire in their postseason opener. Gus Haflin and Rocco Linehan each had a pair of blocks, and Peter Boerth, Reed Browning, and Jonah Stang-Osborne all had multiple scores working on the D-line. 

If there’s one pressure-point for Boston to really push on the DC O-line, it might be former MVP Rowan McDonnell. The 35-year-old Breeze veteran has been very steady lately, with only one throwaway in his last four games, but McDonnell’s postseason history also suggests that it’s possible to provoke mistakes from him. In his career, McDonnell’s postseason completion percentage is just 91.0 percent, compared to his 93.5 percent rate in the regular season. 

With the way Elliot Bonnet has played throughout his rookie campaign, it’s hard to imagine he’d look nervous in the playoffs. But the fact also remains that he’s still young and Saturday will be his first ever UFA playoff game, so he’s another guy that Boston will likely game-plan against, thinking that perhaps he can be coerced into a hiccup or two in a game that will almost certainly be a low-turn, low-scoring mud-fight. 

(By the way, the current forecast calls for perhaps some lingering rain and wind from Tropical Storm Debby rolling through DC on Saturday morning. If that system remains around Carlini Field into the evening, that’s another factor that the two teams will need to grind through.)

One other factor that may or may not matter at all, but’s worth a mention: while Boston is making its first ever appearance in a division championship game, this is DC’s fourth straight year competing in the quarterfinals. The Breeze blew an early lead and lost to the Flyers at home in 2021, then were beaten at the buzzer by Ben Jagt and the Empire in 2022. Last year, New York put forth an historic offensive performance and DC fell by five. Add in divisional title defeats against Toronto in 2016 and 2017 and the Breeze are now 0-5 in UFA quarterfinals.

But after years of pre-Championship Weekend heartbreak, I think the Breeze are bound to break through. I picked them to win the title before the 2023 season, and perhaps that prediction came just one year too soon. 

The Pick: DC 18, Boston 15

******

Madison and Minnesota are both teams built on their defensive strength. The Radicals’ 39.9 percent break rate is number one in the league and among the best in UFA history, and the Wind Chill ranked in the top five in blocks for the fourth consecutive season. 

Furthermore, both teams’ O-lines, already susceptible to droughts, will each be missing important veterans on Saturday night. Madison’s Pat Shriwise, who injured his ankle in the opening round against Chicago, is out. Minnesota’s Matt Rehder, while listed as questionable with a lower body injury, is also unlikely to play. 

Consequently, this game will probably come down to which team’s young O-line playmakers can be more solid and spectacular. Being relentlessly solid is more critical than being occasionally spectacular, but there will be times when Anthony Gutowsky, Gabe Vordick, Quinn Snider, or Gordon Larson have chances to make difficult grabs downfield, and these 50/50 moments will all serve as meaningful turning-points throughout the four-quarter game for their respective teams. 

Without Shriwise, that puts even more pressure on Kai Marcus, Victor Luo, Brian Hart, and Ted Schewe to orchestrate the Radicals offense, a unit that ranked seventh in the league in huck completions per game this year after consistently being near the bottom of the league in deep throws ever since they’ve been tracked (since 2021). Madison also had ok success hucking against Minnesota this season, completing 22-of-36 hucks in the two games, albeit a pair of losses. 

Speaking of a pair of losses, Minnesota did not play at a championship level against either Chicago or New York in their last two non-Detroit games this season. The Wind Chill were outscored 50-36 in those two contests, in which they were broken 17 times and completed just 11-of-23 hucks. On the 19 occasions when their Union or Empire hucked in those games, the Wind Chill defense created only four turnovers. 

“[Minnesota] played two bad games in a row,” said Madison Coach Tim DeByl. “Then they played Detroit and now they’re sitting for three weeks. They haven’t played well in a long time. That’s pretty tough. I wouldn’t wanna do that if I were them. But obviously our offense will need to play much better.”

As you might expect, the Wind Chill are not buying into any narrative about how late-season struggles could impact them in an adverse fashion. As the defending division champs who’ve defeated Madison in each of the Radicals’ last six trips to St. Paul, Minnesota likes its chances on Saturday. 

“While maintaining momentum with wins can look nice on paper, as a leadership group, the challenges we faced in July opened our eyes to some critical areas of improvement that we’ve focused on resolving to be better leading up to this game,” said Wind Chill Coach Ben Feldman. “We’ve embraced those struggles and used them as motivation to be better in our next big opportunity.”

The Radicals have a bunch of underrated talent, and perhaps this next comment will only enhance the chip on Madison’s collective shoulder, but I’m leaning Minnesota for a simple reason. If you did a draft and had all 40 active players on the Radicals and Wind Chill available, there’d be a pretty good run of Minnesota’s best before you’d select anyone from Madison. Will Brandt, Bryan Vohnoutka, Dylan DeClerck, etc. As much fun and clutch as Sterling Knoche, Pieran Robert, and Mitchell McCarthy have been, I think the Radicals know their talent is a level or two below the Wind Chills.

That doesn’t mean they can’t be the best team on Saturday, but Minnesota’s definitely the favorite, and I think the Wind Chill eke out a victory in front of their home fans.

The Pick: Minnesota 22, Madison 19

******

The Salt Lake Shred are the best team in the West, but after a sizzling start to the season, which included an exciting home win over DC and four impressive performances on the road, the Shred’s offense has stumbled through some very disconcerting sequences across multiple games. Several of those concerns resurfaced in the regular season finale against Seattle, as the Cascades roared on 5-1 and 4-0 spurts in the second half. 

“I have seen some weirdness,” Salt Lake Coach Bryce Merrill told me back in the end of June. “We’re averaging 14 turns per game. Defenses are forcing six and we’re giving away eight. That’s really frustrating to me. These players are too good [...] We do not have the mental discipline.”

Merrill actually voiced these concerns before the Shred struggled through a 27-turnover clunker at New York and finished the season with 19 turnovers per game in their final four contests. 

“Not all turns are bad turns,” Merrill added. “But three or four guys are too good but not disciplined enough.”

Salt Lake definitely improved in this department against Seattle, managing just 13 miscues vs. the Cascades, but still gave up those aforementioned late-game runs that, if nothing else, fueled their opponent’s confidence tank leading into Saturday night’s West Division final. 

“Salt Lake is very beatable,” said Lukas Ambrose, after Seattle’s first round victory over Oakland. “We played scared in our first matchup against them, and I know that if we set the tone early, good things will happen. Nobody needs to do anything special, we just need to play our game.”

The Cascades are not a perfect team, but they are a pretty scary team, full of highlight-making athletes that can get hot if you’re not careful. They’ve got a bunch of young, tantalizing talents—18-year-old Cedar Hines returns to the active roster for the first time since late June on Saturday—but they also have a bunch of bought-in veterans who should bring composure and competence in the upcoming upset bid. 

Khalif El-Salaam and Garrett Martin get plenty of headlines and are capable of winning any matchup; Christian Foster and Aaron Wolf have brought stability and confidence to the O-line backfield; Zeppelin Raunig and Tommy Li have both made so many big plays that any deep shot their way feels like a good idea. 

But it’s Ambrose who has become the most dynamic difference-maker on Seattle’s squad, making history in multiple ways this season. With 30 blocks, he’s the first UFA player since Jeff Babbitt in 2017 to record that many blocks in a season. He’s also joined a pretty incredible list of players who’ve ranked top five in the league in plus/minus while playing more D-points than O-points. 

YEAR

PLAYER

TEAM PLUS/MINUS LEAGUE RANK % OF POINTS ON DEFENSE
2016 Peter Graffy MAD +84 3rd 81.3
2017 Jeff Babbitt NY +92 2nd 69.1
2017 Jay Froude DAL +76 5th 70.7
2022 Ben Jagt NY +76 5th 54.0
2024 Lukas Ambrose SEA +62 4th 87.6

What a list. 

To put it another way, he’s just the second player in the last six seasons to finish top five in the league in plus/minus while primarily playing D-line. Jagt, in 2022, played 54 percent of his points on D. Meanwhile, Ambrose played more than 87 percent of his points on D so far this year. 

Now, the Shred were able to neutralize Ambrose in the playoffs last year, when he was with LA. In fact, that’s the only game in his 26-game UFA career where the now 25-year-old finished with zero goals, zero assists, and zero blocks. It would be stunning to see Ambrose get blanked again on Saturday night, but if Salt Lake can keep him relatively quiet, that will significantly increase their chances of taking care of business.

Remember, the Shred have their fair share of vicious defenders too. Since Salt Lake joined the UFA in 2022, the D-line player with the most scores across the league is Chad Yorgason, who’s produced 84 assists and 44 goals in 40 games while spending over 90 percent of the time on D. In those same 40 games, Salt Lake’s O-line star Jordan Kerr has accumulated 187 goals and 84 assists. 

Ultimately, I think this West Division final will come down to whether Salt Lake’s offense, led by guys like Kerr, Will Selfridge and Grant Lindsley, can rediscover their mojo and avoid a major lull. I expect Jacob Miller, Jace Duennebeil, and Elijah Jaime to be typically solid, but it’ll be up to the previous three to walk the fine line between simple steadiness and rising up to meet the moment. And don’t be surprised if, with Luke Yorgason currently listed as inactive, we see Chad shift onto offense for part of the game to join the youngest Yorgason, McKay, as an important disc mover. 

There’s also the reality that Salt Lake’s rowdy crowd full of ShredHeads will be doing everything they can to make life difficult for the visiting Cascades. Everyone on Seattle understands this will be the case, but dealing with it on gameday is still a challenge.

“We will need to deal with the energy that the Shred fans bring to the game,” said Ambrose, “but if we can balance that and maintain our team confidence, we will have a great chance of winning and seeing Championship Weekend.”

I agree the Cascades have a chance, but in the end, I think the Shred sneak by.

The Pick: Salt Lake 21, Seattle 20