August 20, 2024
By Evan Lepler
We’re three days away from Championship Weekend, and this year’s climactic event will feel quite different than the recent past.
For starters, it’s the first time in seven years that the New York Empire are not involved. Back in 2017, the Empire missed the playoffs entirely, and the title game featured the Toronto Rush and the San Francisco FlameThrowers, a pair of teams that combined for just one win here in 2024. But with New York falling short of the semis this season, it’s another East Division powerhouse that enters Championship Weekend as the clear favorite.
The DC Breeze have spent much of the past half-decade existing in the Empire’s shadow, a truly worthy competitor but lacking the big game firepower to overthrow New York from their reign over the region. Now, after winning 11 of their last 12 games and setting records for offensive efficiency, the Breeze will be the popular pick to take the trophy this Saturday evening. Their combination of speed, athleticism, and talent will be tough for anyone to match, and their season-long efficiency in converting with both lines exceeds any of their final four counterparts.
Of course, while the team that’s widely considered the favorite often prevails, historically we have seen some surprises too.
Amongst the three other division champs, the Carolina Flyers will undoubtedly be considered the Breeze’s most serious challenger. The only team at this year’s event who’s previously won it all, the Flyers claimed the crown in 2021 by out-possessing New York and defensively swarming the Empire’s excellent cutters. Although many of Carolina’s veteran leaders have moved on since that September celebration in DC, the Flyers still bring many of the same characteristics and strategies that helped them reach the top of the mountain three years ago, and it’s not too hard to imagine them earning two more magical victories this coming weekend.
As for the Breeze and Flyers’ semifinal opponents, Minnesota and Seattle are two likable and explosive teams. Throughout the season, they both have had thrilling moments and stretches where they looked like they could hang with anyone in the league. But there’s also the undeniable fact that, from a consistency standpoint, the Wind Chill and Cascades have simply resided a couple notches below the Breeze and the Flyers. While this does not guarantee anything—it’s not like these perceptions count for any goals on the scoreboard—it does indicate that Minnesota and Seattle are arriving as rather sizable underdogs.
These two semifinal matchups remind me a little bit of the dynamic we saw in 2019, when New York, undefeated and seeking its first title, faced overmatched Indy, and Dallas, in the semis for the fourth straight year, met a San Diego team that was making its Championship Weekend debut. Those two games did offer some drama, but the two favorites both made enough plays to move on to the final, where they waged a tremendously competitive and high-level championship battle.
Ultimately, I think that’s where we’re headed this weekend. I’m fully prepared to see Minnesota and Seattle make some massive plays on Friday night. The Wind Chill will be ultra-determined to prove they can hang with DC, and their league-best pulling could present the Breeze with tricky challenges that they’re relatively unaccustomed to seeing early in possessions. Meanwhile, the Cascades showed they can complete passes and convert holds against intense, physical pressure in the West Division final. Looking ahead to Friday night, absorbing the Flyers’ initial defensive punch is vital if they want to keep it close.
The recent Division Championship games are just a single data point, but the Flyers and Breeze had 10 and 11 turnovers, respectively, in those contests, whereas the ‘Scades and Chill had 17 and 18. Considering that Carolina and DC both also have superb defenses, I don’t envision either Minnesota or Seattle narrowing that turnover gap with perfect offense for 48 minutes. It is far more likely that the underdogs use some crafty defensive wrinkles and premier playmaking to create some break chances. When they do generate a rare opportunity to score against Carolina or DC’s O-line, they absolutely must capitalize on it.
It will definitely be memorable, and I am genuinely giddy about the chance to return to Utah in two days time.
The Full Field Layout
If we do indeed get the Breeze and Flyers in Saturday’s title game, it would be the ninth all-time collision between these two successful franchises. They first met in 2017, and they have almost always played extremely exciting and close games. Overall, DC holds a 5-3 edge, but Carolina claimed the only previous meeting in the playoffs, preventing the Breeze from playing in Championship Weekend on their home turf three years ago with a comeback victory at Carlini Field in the quarterfinals. The Flyers were down 8-4 with eight minutes left in the second quarter that night, but tied the game at nine apiece by halftime and eventually pulled away to win 19-16.
Far more recent and relevant, though, was DC’s demolition over Carolina during Week 10 of the 2024 regular season, when the Breeze went 14-for-15 on break chances and buried the Flyers 25-13. It was the most lopsided loss suffered by any of the four division champs all season long, though it’s not completely unprecedented for a UFA team to get shellacked in the regular season and still win the championship.
In 2015, the Spiders lost by 14 to the FlameThrowers, albeit in a relatively meaningless regular season finale, before going on to win the title. More noteworthy was Madison’s eight-goal loss against Carolina midway through their 2018 campaign, which was a very meaningful result that the Radicals were forced to confront, learn from, and use as fuel, which they did en route to their first championship.
Returning to present time, though, Carolina Coach Mike DeNardis is confident that the team’s late-June clunker is not at all representative of their ability to compete with the Breeze in a rematch.
“We kind of wilted when things started going poorly,” said DeNardis. “Tons of uncharacteristic throwaways and drops.”
It was less of an emergency wake-up call and more an emphatic reminder that the Flyers, who would bounce back the very next night in Pittsburgh, needed to bring their best or they would fall well short of their ultimate ambitions.
Meanwhile, on that very same weekend, Carolina’s semifinal opponent also experienced a season-shifting result. In the case of the Seattle Cascades, their Week 10 triumph over Colorado reset the expectations and belief inside the team’s youthful locker room.
“The Colorado win was the first time we thought we could make Championship Weekend,” said Cascades Coach Jesse Bolton, prior to the West Division title game.
The Cascades’ confidence obviously continued to grow even in defeat at Salt Lake on July 19, and after spoiling the Shred’s postseason party in the West final on August 10, Seattle has let itself dream even more.
“This team isn’t a ‘happy to be here’ type of team,” said Cascades Captain Khalif El-Salaam. "We are a team that will prepare and show up to win.”
Obviously, no team in the UFA universe has come further in 2024 than the Cascades, elevating their record from 4-8 last year to 11-3 this season, including the playoffs. For an organization that’s most often been regarded as unfulfilled potential over the course of the past half-decade, it’s been an extremely satisfying turnaround.
But even going back to the preseason, Seattle’s leadership sensed a different vibe. Personally, I have learned to be a little skeptical through the years when hearing coaches and captains touting the renewed collective buy-in and determination, but there’s no doubt that, for the Cascades in 2024, it was very, very real.
“The team has such a great culture this year,” said Seattle’s Tommy Li, following his game-winning score to beat Colorado on June 29. “The workout Slack is always popping, practices are energetic—with lots of good trash talk—and players have been finding their groove. Our away games have been super fun traveling with the team and just shenanigans. We are winning games, but it’s just a product of doing everything else right.”
One thing to keep in mind if the Cascades do fall behind on Friday night…the last time Seattle played at Championship Weekend, they authored the greatest comeback in UFA history, rallying back from seven goals down in the second half to absolutely stun the hometown Madison Radicals in 2016. To this day, it’s definitely on the short list for greatest games the sport has ever seen, and if you’re looking to get the juices flowing in advance of the upcoming action, I strongly recommend checking out the 52-minute “Ultimate Greatness” version of that eight-year old classic.
Then there’s the Minnesota Wind Chill, a team that was on the wrong side of another iconic Championship Weekend moment on their home field. Like the Radicals in 2016, the Wind Chill had the crowd, the momentum, and seemingly the victory in hand last year against Salt Lake, until the ultimate Gods cruelly dealt them a devastating conclusion to an otherwise exhilarating experience.
It’s easy to be totally overwhelmed by Salt Lake’s miraculous game-tying buzzer-beater, but when thinking about how the Wind Chill might respond a year later, it’s important to remember how Minnesota’s defense flustered the team that ranked statistically as the top offense in the circuit in 2023.
“I do understand that DC is likely viewed as the favorite, but so was Salt Lake in our semifinal from last year,” said Wind Chill Captain Bryan Vohnoutka, after Minnesota’s playoff win over Madison. “I don’t think many people would’ve predicted how close that game ended up.”
The reason to be optimistic about Minnesota’s chances is the team’s growing youth movement. On offense, Quinn Snider, Gordon Larson, and Will Brandt, who are 25, 24, and 22, respectively, all have produced the best seasons of their young careers, showing extended glimpses of All-UFA stardom. Similarly, Anthony Jirele, Paul Krenik, Cam Lacy, and Thomas Shope, who are 24, 22, 21, and 18, respectively, are the future of the Wind Chill’s defense, capable of relentlessly challenging DC’s O-line in ways that other teams cannot. The newer core of this team may not be able to completely carry Minnesota just yet, but they do have a huge opportunity in front of them on Friday night, a chance to all collectively transform that potential into production on a massive stage.
And remember, the DC Breeze have never been on this stage before. That’s something that Minnesota should be telling itself all week long, understanding that perhaps they can land the first haymaker while the Breeze are still settling into the moment on Friday night.
With this in mind, I’d be stunned if the Wind Chill didn’t strongly desire to start the game on defense, hope they could provoke an early error, and then try to enthusiastically ride the momentum from there.
That’s the road map for Minnesota, but the journey will obviously be full of obstacles. Mainly, the masterful group of defensive playmakers and possession-preserving throwers that DC will bring to the battle.
Just on defense, the Breeze have four guys—Thomas Edmonds, Troy Holland, AJ Merriman, and Jasper Tom—who will be suiting up for the USA National Team at the World Championships in Australia at the end of the month. Offensively, Jonny Malks and Rowan McDonnell are two more national team members who will lead the Breeze attack, though Andrew Roy and Jacques Nissen may be ever more valuable handlers on the DC O-line in 2024. Young French phenom Elliot Bonnet is another guy who the Wind Chill will have to contain, not to mention established mainstays like Tyler Monroe, Jeff Wodatch, and Minnesota transplant Cole Jurek, who previously spent three seasons in a Wind Chill jersey.
Perhaps more than any other team, if you try to focus your defensive attention on stopping one or two key guys on the Breeze O-line, the rest of the group will make you pay.
“I love that about our team,” said DC Coach Lauren Boyle, after the Breeze’s playoff win over Boston. “If you target one offender, we will work through the others [...] This season, we have been building towards being excellent. Our defense was excellent by our definition. All seven players bought into the plan, owning their role, making spaces feel chaotic, or building pressure. It is easy to see the plays that [David] Bloodgood, Jasper, Rhys [Bergeron], and Jace [Dean] make, which are worth celebrating. I also hope people see the selfless play of the rest of our defense so those plays could happen.”
It’s been 115 days since the Breeze’s season began with a disappointing performance on the road at Salt Lake, a result that humbled DC and forced them to refocus in pursuit of the chance to return to Utah here in August.
“The crowd and stadium vibe were awesome,” said Malks, after that game against Shred. “Honestly, felt the most like I was playing a professional sport than ever have before in the league. Very cool facility with the mountains right there. The fans showed up. It was all a very memorable experience.”
Obviously, nearly four months later, the season has come full circle for the Breeze, as they now travel back to that same site, ironically carrying the biggest target on their backs even as the only first-time semifinalist of the bunch.
Back in April, Malks mentioned that he knew his team needed to improve in numerous ways in order to earn their way back. Having achieved the opportunity, the entire DC organization is hopeful to fully embrace and capitalize upon this precious moment.
“We’ll be at Championship Weekend in full force and raring to go,” said Malks.
Coming up shortly in “Seven On The Line", everything else you should know to be fully prepared for an unforgettable Championship Weekend!
