February 14, 2024
By Daniel Cohen
The following list indicates each team’s strength of schedule for 2024, based on their opponents’ win percentages from last season.
As an example, the opponents for Austin’s 12 games this season had a combined 54-95 record (.362) in 2023—this combined record accounts for multiple games against individual opponents (Dallas finished 2-10 last year, so since Austin plays them four times this year, we’re counting it as a combined 8-40 record towards their total opponent record).
The above method does not take into account home-away splits, nor does it account for any offseason additions or projected records.
Listed from toughest schedule to easiest:
- Montreal Royal - .624
- Carolina Flyers - .571
- Colorado Summit - .561
- Atlanta Hustle - .556
- DC Breeze - .551
- Detroit Mechanix - .551
- Philadelphia Phoenix - .548
- New York Empire - .545
- Portland Nitro - .529
- San Diego Growlers - .523
- Chicago Union - .503
- Boston Glory - .500
- Dallas Legion - .491
- Salt Lake Shred - .490
- Houston Havoc - .484
- Pittsburgh Thunderbirds - .481
- Toronto Rush - .474
- Los Angeles Aviators - .470
- Madison Radicals - .465
- Minnesota Wind Chill - .451
- Seattle Cascades - .444
- Oakland Spiders - .416
- Indianapolis AlleyCats - .393
- Austin Sol - .362
Winners
Austin Sol
Easiest schedule
Another year, another Texas-heavy schedule for the Austin Sol. With seven of their 12 games coming against teams that went a combined 4-20 in 2023, the Sol should have another fairly easy road to the playoffs. They had the third-easiest schedule in 2023, and while it raised questions about how battle-tested they were coming into last year’s playoffs, they answered those questions with two playoff wins and their first trip to Championship Weekend.
LA Aviators
Seventh-easiest schedule
After making it to the West Division Championship Game last year, the Aviators’ schedule should be a big help to them in a crowded division. They won’t play any out of division games, which gives them the scheduling edge over Salt Lake and Colorado; the two other playoff teams from last year will play a combined six out-of-division games. While it won’t be a walk in the park—they still play Salt Lake twice, Colorado once, and Oakland three times—every bit of scheduling help matters in what should be an extremely tight playoff race.
Oakland Spiders
Third-easiest schedule
We saw how Colorado’s interdivisional loss to New York last year was nearly the nail that kept them from a home playoff game, and in addition to LA, Oakland stands to benefit from a less flashy schedule. Like their California counterparts, Oakland doesn’t have any interdivisional games, and they come into 2024 with the third-easiest schedule thanks to just one game each against Colorado and Salt Lake. And a little bonus: both games against last year’s one and two seeds will be played in Oakland.
Losers
DC Breeze
Fifth-toughest schedule
Even though they’re playing in a division with a zero-win team from 2023 (and DC will play Montreal twice), the DC Breeze still have the fifth-toughest schedule due to two interdivisional games against Carolina and Salt Lake, the latter of which will serve as a statement-making opportunity to kick off the first week of the season. The Breeze always seem to be near the top of the strength of schedule list—they had the fifth-toughest schedule last year—but they continue to prove they’re up for the challenge, as they’ve lost just eight regular season games in their past three seasons. Still, the two showdowns with New York always loom largest on their schedule, and it feels like those two games alone are enough to keep them towards the top of this list for the foreseeable future.
Atlanta Hustle
Fourth-toughest schedule
After coming into 2023 with the second-toughest schedule, the Hustle again rank in the top five this year. The four games against Carolina and two against Austin are never going to be easy, and then the schedule gets even spicier with three interdivisional games: vs. New York in Week 2, at Indy in Week 4, and at Colorado in Week 6. In total, Atlanta will play nine of their 12 games against 2023 playoff teams—that’s the most any team will have to face in the regular season this year.
Colorado Summit
Third-toughest schedule
While they had the seventh-easiest schedule last year, the Colorado Summit will have a much more difficult road in 2024, with the third-toughest schedule. A three-game Super Series gauntlet will do that to you. As far as playoff teams go, they’ll play Minnesota, Atlanta, and Indy in addition to two games against Salt Lake and one against LA. Then there’s two more sneaky tough matchups, at Madison and at Oakland, that I’d also put in the ‘losable games’ category. With LA and Oakland at the other end of the Strength of Schedule list and looking to knock Colorado out of the playoffs, the Summit won’t have much margin for error if they plan on taking back the West.
