Photo by Rob Gilmor
JULY 12, 2024
By Marissa Kleckner
As it sits right now in the two-week break, the DC Breeze (9-2) hang on to a half-game lead over the Boston Glory (8-2) for first place in the East Division. DC has one game left against the New York Empire, while Boston faces a Canadian double header, playing the Toronto Rush and Montreal Royal on the final weekend of the season, two teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention.
DC, Boston, and New York have all secured playoff spots but are battling for the division title that comes with a first-round bye and the right to host a playoff game as the first or second seed.
If the Breeze and Glory each win out ending at 10-2, the East will come down to a tiebreaker. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, and the second is point differential between the teams when they played each other this season. Because each team won one of the regular season matchups and both by just one point, this would once again result in a tie.
The next step in a tiebreaker is the team's adjusted division point differential. An adjusted division point differential takes the average differential between all division opponents and adds them together. For example, the Breeze beat the Philadelphia Phoenix by 12 in their first matchup but just by 1 in the second, so the average point differential of DC vs PHI in the 2024 season is 6.5 ((12+1)/2=6.5.)
Going into the final game, DC’s adjusted division point differential is 20.5 (0 (BOS) + 4.5 (MTL) + 2 (NY) + 6.5 (PHI) + 7.5 (TOR)). Boston's adjusted division point differential is slightly less certain with two games left but currently sits at 18 (0 (DC) + 1.5 (MTL) + 0 (NY) + 9.5 (PHL) + 7 (TOR)).
DC appears to hold the upper hand with two weeks left in the regular season. The Breeze only need to win one more game against an opponent they bested earlier in the season, and Boston faces a difficult travel weekend next Saturday and Sunday in Toronto and Montreal, respectively. Montreal has proven that they can compete with the class of the East Division, nearly defeating Boston just one week ago, and the Glory's next matchup in Quebec will be a 1 p.m. start after an evening game the night before in Toronto. Should the Breeze defeat the Empire by at least two goals, Boston will need to win both of their games next weekend by a total of 16 goals to force a coin flip for first in the East.
There is an essentially infinite number of scenarios that can play out (including one where all three playoff teams finish 9-3 with identical head-to-head records), and it's probably not worth the time exploring every single one, but suffice it to say that it's all coming down to the wire in the final weekend of the regular season, and it's sure to be exciting!
If the Breeze win the division, the team will host the East Division Championship game for the first time in franchise history on Saturday, August 10 at Carlini Field at 7 p.m. If the Breeze place second in the division, the team will host the first-round game on Saturday, July 27 at Carlini Field at 7 p.m.
